President Joe Biden is framing the 2024 election as a verdict on Donald Trump’s presidency, a strategy that may prove challenging as he navigates his own term and voters’ shifting perceptions of Trump’s tumultuous tenure. Meanwhile, the presumptive GOP nominee is making strides in rallying the Republican Party around him, leveraging his ongoing criminal trial in New York to bolster his narrative of political victimization.
Even former Attorney General William Barr, who once suggested Trump was unfit for the Oval Office, has expressed his support for the former president in a recent CNN interview. Trump also met with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a former GOP primary rival, signaling a potential alliance.
However, Biden is grappling with dissatisfaction within key demographics of his own coalition, including younger voters, according to a new CNN poll. With the election just over six months away, a turbulent political climate presents numerous challenges for both candidates, making it difficult to predict the decisive issues for November.
Trump’s Legacy and Biden’s Challenges
The CNN poll released Sunday indicates that Biden is under significant pressure to remind voters of the chaos that marked Trump’s single term, which ended with his erratic handling of a once-in-a-century pandemic. However, to some voters, Trump’s tenure is increasingly remembered as a period of economic stability. The poll shows that 55% of Americans view Trump’s presidency as a success, a stark contrast to the 55% who considered his presidency a failure just after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
Regarding Biden’s presidency, the poll reveals a 61% failure rate, with only 39% viewing it as successful. These figures highlight the reversed dynamic Biden must navigate as he seeks re-election. Four years ago, he was able to criticize Trump’s time in office as a challenger. Now, Trump is capitalizing on Biden’s struggles in office, painting a picture of a failing nation and a world spiraling into chaos.
The Impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Trump’s Legal Woes
The potential influence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the race remains uncertain, although Trump appears increasingly concerned about his candidacy. Meanwhile, the unprecedented situation of a potential president facing multiple criminal indictments, including a verdict in his Manhattan hush money case, adds another layer of complexity to Trump’s attempted political comeback.
Key Issues: Economy, Abortion Rights, and Israel’s War in Gaza
Key issues likely to influence the election range from voter dissatisfaction with the economy and abortion rights to criticism of Biden’s leadership on domestic and international issues amid high inflation and growing campus protests over Israel’s war in Gaza. Biden’s handling of the Gaza crisis, in particular, has drawn widespread disapproval, with an 81% disapproval rating among voters under 35.
Trump and DeSantis: A Potential Alliance?
Despite the fluctuating political climate, polls suggest that Trump and Biden’s levels of support among registered voters remain relatively stable. CBS News polls published Sunday show Biden and Trump evenly matched in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — key swing states that could determine the election outcome.
Biden’s Struggles and Trump’s Resilience
Despite Biden’s achievements, including historically low unemployment rates, a unified Western response to Russia’s assault on Ukraine, and significant legislative successes, he struggles to gain credit from voters, possibly due to high inflation and lingering economic insecurity. Conversely, Trump, the first ex-president to be indicted and who left office in disgrace after a single tumultuous term, continues to enjoy robust support from millions of Americans.