For over a century, New Hampshire has held the first presidential primary, a tradition it is determined to uphold for the 2024 election. The state’s primary status is protected by a 1975 law, which mandates that New Hampshire’s primary must precede all others. Despite its small population of less than 1.5 million and predominantly White demographic, the state’s primary is taken seriously by its residents and candidates alike.
Why New Hampshire’s Primary Matters
While New Hampshire may not be representative of the entire country, it plays a crucial role in the American political system. Presidential hopefuls must effectively communicate their messages to the everyday people of New Hampshire, often in intimate settings like living rooms and local diners. Although the state government is Republican-controlled, New Hampshire is often a battleground state in general elections. Since 2004, it has consistently voted Democrat in presidential elections.
Who Can Vote and Who’s Leading?
Registered Republicans and Democrats can vote in their respective primaries, but New Hampshire also allows independent voters to participate by choosing either a Republican or Democratic ballot. Currently, former President Donald Trump leads the Republican race, but former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has been gaining ground. Despite endorsing Haley, New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has stated he would support Trump if he wins the Republican primary.
Delegates and Nomination Predictions
Despite the attention it receives for being the first primary, New Hampshire only contributes a small number of delegates to the nomination process. The state has a strong track record of predicting the Republican nominee, but its success rate is less consistent on the Democratic side. This year, President Joe Biden’s name will not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot due to a decision by the Democratic National Committee to prioritize South Carolina’s more diverse Democratic base.
The History of New Hampshire’s Primary
Primaries are a relatively recent development in American democracy, with New Hampshire conducting its first presidential preference primary in 1920. However, it wasn’t until 1952 that New Hampshire primary voters began directly voting for presidential candidates, a change that had immediate impact. The first direct primary saw Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was still on active military duty and not a declared candidate, win the Republican ballot and eventually the presidency.
Could Biden Still Win in New Hampshire?
Despite his absence from the ballot, there is an organized write-in effort to get Biden elected. However, due to violations of the Democratic Party’s scheduling rules, no delegates will be awarded based on the results of this contest. The national party’s rules panel has dismissed the contest as “meaningless,” leading to accusations of voter suppression from New Hampshire’s Republican attorney general.