The stage is set for the 2024 presidential general election, marking the first presidential rematch since 1956 and the first between a current and a former president since 1892. The spotlight is on President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, with the road to victory appearing more challenging for Biden compared to his 2020 campaign.
Recent polls suggest that Biden’s chances for reelection are no better than 50-50, indicating that Trump has a genuine opportunity to reclaim the presidency. Surveys from The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and The Wall Street Journal all show Trump leading Biden by margins of 2 to 4 points, painting a picture of a troubled incumbent.
Biden’s Polling Woes
Not only is Biden in a more precarious position against his general election opponent than almost any incumbent in the past 75 years, but a lead for Trump was also unheard of during the 2020 campaign. The states that secured Biden’s victory in the Electoral College in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) were each decided by less than a point, leaving him with little margin for error.
Current state polling paints a bleaker picture for Biden, with him trailing by 5 points or more in recent polls from Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Furthermore, Biden is also lagging in Michigan, with the average of polls over the past six months showing him down by 4 points.
Underlying Issues
However, it’s not just the “horse race” polling that should concern Biden. The top issues for Americans are related to the economy and immigration, and Trump is considerably more trusted than Biden on both. Biden’s approval rating is hovering at or just below 40%, making him the least popular elected incumbent at this point in his reelection bid since World War II.
While Democrats argue that Trump is also unpopular, recent polls from Fox News, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal show Trump’s favorable ratings a few points higher than Biden’s. This means Biden needs to win over voters who dislike both candidates by a substantial margin to compensate for his popularity deficit.
Looking Ahead
With eight months to go, Biden could certainly close the gap. However, both major-party candidates are already well defined, with less than 5% of voters unable to register an opinion on Biden or Trump. Biden’s best hope may lie with the four criminal indictments against Trump, but it remains unclear how much of a difference a guilty verdict in any of those cases would make.
According to a New York Times poll, 53% of likely voters believe Trump committed a serious federal crime, yet the same poll showed Trump leading by 4 points. This suggests that even if some voters believe Trump committed a serious federal crime, they may still vote for him.
Conversely, the same poll found that 72% of likely voters believe Biden’s age makes him too old to be an effective president. This gap could be one of the biggest reasons Biden is struggling against Trump. The key question over the next eight months is whether Trump’s weaknesses will start to outweigh Biden’s, which could be the president’s best chance at earning another term.