As the 2024 Republican presidential contenders prepare for the Iowa caucuses, they are increasingly concerned about the impact of the state’s dangerously cold weather on voter turnout. The Arctic blast expected to hit the central US this weekend could result in the coldest caucuses in Iowa’s history.
Monday’s forecast predicts the coldest January day in Iowa for at least five years, with wind chills potentially dropping to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit. The GOP campaigns are now adjusting their strategies and expectations to account for the severe weather conditions.
Accessibility issues are also a concern, with fears that caucusgoers’ vehicles may fail to start or break down en route to polling locations. The extreme cold, coupled with a snowstorm earlier in the week, has already forced candidates to reschedule events.
Impact on Campaign Strategies
The Trump campaign has been vocal about the need for Iowans to participate in the caucuses despite the weather. Trump’s team is banking on a strong showing in Iowa to help secure enough delegates for him to be the presumptive GOP nominee by mid-March. However, they acknowledge that the extreme cold could affect his lead in the state.
Other campaigns, including those of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, have also expressed concerns about the weather’s impact on voter turnout. Despite these concerns, all campaigns remain confident in their ability to mobilize their supporters.
Voter Perspectives
Some voters, like Holly Moeller, a 65-year-old Republican from Rock Rapids, Iowa, are unsure if they will caucus due to the weather. Others, like Kim McAdams, believe that Iowans are accustomed to the cold and will turn out to vote regardless.
Preparing for the Cold
Despite the challenges, campaigns are taking steps to ensure voters can access caucus locations. The Trump campaign, for example, has hired drivers with four-wheel drive to transport caucusgoers in targeted areas across the state.
AFP Action, a super PAC supporting Haley, plans to continue door-knocking up until an hour before the caucuses to remind Iowans to participate. Meanwhile, the DeSantis campaign is confident in its ground game structure and believes it is well-prepared for the forecasted conditions.
Looking Ahead
As the caucuses approach, all eyes will be on Iowa to see how the extreme weather impacts voter turnout and the overall results. The outcome could have significant implications for the rest of the primary season and the 2024 presidential race.