The world as we know it could undergo a significant transformation by January 1, 2025, influenced by a series of global elections, geopolitical forces, and conflicts. The United States will once again face a crucial test of democracy in the form of a White House race. The resurgence of far-right populism is not limited to the U.S., with similar movements gaining momentum in Europe. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with economic instability fueled by mass migration, recession fears, and climate change impacts, pose significant challenges to democratic governments worldwide.
U.S. Elections: A Potential Turning Point
The most predictable global shock of 2024 could be the re-election of Donald Trump, who would become only the second U.S. president to win a non-consecutive term. Trump’s potential return to power could pose a significant challenge to U.S. democracy and the American-led global order. His rhetoric, reminiscent of 1930s demagoguery, and his open hostility towards alliances could even endanger NATO.
Supreme Court: A Political Battleground
Following years of declining popularity due to conservative decisions, the Supreme Court is increasingly entangled in political issues. The court may be called upon to adjudicate on divisive issues, including Trump’s eligibility for the ballot and his claims of presidential immunity.
Global Elections: A Test for Democracy
While millions of people worldwide will participate in elections this year, these events may highlight the increasing peril facing democracy rather than its robust health. Elections in Taiwan, India, Russia, and the European Union could have significant implications for global politics.
Geopolitical Realignment
The year 2024 will further solidify a new global alignment, with the U.S. and its allies facing a loosely coordinated front of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These shifting geopolitical plates mean every global crisis now becomes a test of U.S. credibility and Biden’s strength.
Immigration: A Global Challenge
Undocumented migration flows continue to challenge major developed nations. However, ideological divides make effective reforms nearly impossible, and the worsening situation benefits extremists who exploit immigration issues for political gain.
U.S.-China Relations: A Delicate Balance
Despite an agreement between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping to prevent escalating tensions, the world’s most critical diplomatic relationship faces daily pressures. The South and East China Seas could become flashpoints for a major crisis at any time.
Artificial Intelligence: A New Frontier
As artificial intelligence breakthroughs continue to accelerate, governments will intensify efforts to understand and regulate the social, economic, employment, and security implications of these new technologies.
Climate Crisis: A Race Against Time
As the evidence of climate change becomes ever more dangerously apparent, the political will in many countries is diminishing to meet already established emissions targets. The year ahead promises to be another period of extreme weather events, underscoring the urgent need for action.