In a strategic move that could safeguard her political career, US Representative Lauren Boebert has opted to change her congressional district less than a year before the 2024 elections. The outspoken conservative is vying for a seat in a district that is predominantly white, affluent, and Republican — a combination that could potentially secure her another term in Congress.
Boebert, who currently represents the 3rd District, has now set her sights on the 4th District, located on the opposite side of the state. This shift allows her to sidestep a potentially difficult rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, who had a stronger fundraising campaign in the fall. The 4th District, with its demographics and political leanings, appears to be more favorable for Boebert’s re-election bid.
Comparing the Two Districts
The transition from her current, more moderate district to the new one seems to be a strategic move for Boebert, a staunch ally of the Donald Trump faction of the Republican party. She had previously opposed Representative Kevin McCarthy’s election as Speaker when Republicans regained control of the House in 2023. The 4th District boasts a larger proportion of Republican voters and a 9.1 percentage point higher share of white residents compared to the 3rd District, as per the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions.
The 4th District, primarily based in Douglas County and covering the rural Eastern Plains, is also wealthier than Boebert’s previous district — and indeed, any other district in the state. According to the Census Bureau, only 4% of families in District 4 reported income below the poverty level, compared to 8.8% of families in District 3.
Previous Election Results
In the 2022 midterms, Boebert narrowly defeated Frisch by 546 votes in what was the tightest GOP House race of the year. In contrast, Republican Representative Ken Buck — whose soon-to-be vacated seat Boebert is targeting in the 4th — won over his Democratic opponent by more than 86,000 votes, or 24.3 percentage points.
Challenges Ahead
Despite running in the state’s most conservative district, Boebert’s victory is far from assured. The controversial conservative has been mired in a series of scandals during her tenure, including her association with the QAnon conspiracy movement and her anti-Muslim remarks against fellow Representative Ilhan Omar. Boebert will also have to contend with a crowded Republican primary field in the 4th District, which includes a talk radio host and a state legislator.