The first glimpse of CNN’s “Road to 270” electoral map reveals a challenging path for incumbent President Joe Biden to replicate his 2020 Electoral College majority. Conversely, former President Donald Trump appears to have enough states either solidly supporting him or leaning his way, positioning him for a potential presidential comeback.
The Current Political Landscape
With ten months until Election Day, the dynamics of a potential Biden vs. Trump rematch are taking shape. Biden, despite his incumbency, grapples with low approval ratings, questions about his fitness for another term, and dwindling support from key factions of his 2020 coalition. On the other hand, Trump, a candidate with serious flaws and undemocratic promises, faces four criminal indictments comprising 91 charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, mishandling of classified documents, obstruction of law enforcement, and alleged falsification of business records. Despite these charges, Trump maintains his innocence and denies any wrongdoing.
Understanding the Electoral Outlook
This electoral outlook is a snapshot of the current Electoral College landscape, not a prediction of the November results or the state of affairs at the summer nominating conventions. The outlook will evolve as the race unfolds, reflecting the realities of the race as accurately as possible at any given time.
The Path to 270
The path to 270 electoral votes, not national polls, will determine the next occupant of the Oval Office. This outlook is based on public and private polling, discussions with campaign advisers, political operatives, Congress members, and professionals from outside groups likely to be active in the race. The map will undoubtedly change as campaigns strategize, allocate resources, and respond to evolving issues.
Unpredictable Factors
Several unpredictable factors could influence the election, including the state of the economy, the situation at the southern US border, threats to democracy, Biden’s decisions and actions in Ukraine and Israel, and the status of abortion rights. The potential impact of third-party candidates could also disrupt the electoral math in critical battleground states.
Initial Electoral Map Outlook
In this initial outlook, Trump has 28 states (and one Maine congressional district) either solidly supporting him or leaning his way, totaling 272 electoral votes. Biden, on the other hand, has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly favoring him or leaning his way, bringing his total electoral vote count to 225. Three states (and one Nebraska congressional district) totaling 41 electoral votes are currently toss-ups. If Biden were to win all the current toss-ups, he’d still need to win back at least one of the three states he won in 2020 (Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada) currently leaning Trump’s way.
State-by-State Breakdown
The following is a breakdown of the current state-by-state electoral outlook: