In the race to replace the disgraced former Rep. George Santos, Democrats are leading in both campaign funds and airtime, according to recent campaign filings and advertising data. The critical special election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District, located on Long Island’s north shore, is scheduled for February 13. Democrats are keen to seize the seat and reduce the slim majority of House Republicans.
In 2022, Santos, a Republican, won a seat that had been held by Democrats for a long time by a margin of about 8 points. The race to replace him could provide valuable insights into the political climate at the beginning of this election year. The Democratic nominee for the special election is former Rep. Tom Suozzi, a seasoned local politician who held the seat for three terms before an unsuccessful gubernatorial run in 2022. His Republican adversary, Mazi Pilip, is a Nassau County legislator, an Israeli immigrant born in Ethiopia, and a former member of the Israel Defense Forces.
According to New York’s special election rules, the county party leaders in the district selected both nominees. Suozzi raised more than triple the amount raised by Pilip, $4.5 million to $1.3 million, according to new filings with the Federal Election Commission. Suozzi also outspent Pilip, $2.4 million to $714,000, during this period. Importantly, Suozzi had a significant cash-on-hand advantage entering the final weeks of the race, with about $2.2 million banked compared to Pilip’s $629,000.
On the airwaves, Democrats have also held the edge in the special election, according to AdImpact data. Including national party committees and outside groups, Democrats have outspent Republicans on advertising by approximately $9.9 million to $6.4 million. A pair of super PACs from each side, House Majority PAC for the Democrats, and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans, have led this advertising deluge, each spending around $4 million on ads since January.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, has also made a substantial investment, spending about $3.9 million on the race. In contrast, its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has spent about $964,000, plus about $885,000 on a joint effort with Pilip.
The winner of the special election will serve out the remainder of Santos’ term. The primary for the regular full term will be held in June. However, the district’s boundaries beyond the special election remain uncertain, as New York’s highest court has ordered the state to redraw its congressional map this year. The state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature would have the final say over the new lines.
Despite the current situation, the GOP has made gains in elections on Long Island since then, largely due to concerns about crime, immigration, and inflation, including the high cost of housing.
Contributors to this report include CNN’s Clare Foran, Haley Talbot, Fredreka Schouten, and Renée Rigdon.