Long-time Iowa caucus attendee, Teresa Garman, sees Monday’s caucus as the most pivotal in her memory. Despite the harsh winter weather, the 86-year-old Ames resident is determined to support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, even though she acknowledges the likelihood of former President Donald Trump’s victory. “I think Trump is probably going to win the Iowa caucus and hopefully DeSantis will be next,” said Garman, a former Iowa state representative.
Trump’s legal troubles have cast a shadow over the GOP presidential primary, particularly as Iowa Republicans make their final decisions ahead of Monday night’s caucuses. Polls indicate a strong lead for Trump both in Iowa and nationally, despite facing four indictments and a pending Supreme Court decision regarding his removal from the Colorado ballot.
Opinions among Iowans vary regarding Trump’s legal issues, ranging from anger, echoing Trump’s own criticism of a “witch hunt,” to a desire to focus on pressing national issues. Trump’s rivals have adopted different strategies to navigate these sentiments.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has highlighted the “chaos” associated with Trump, while DeSantis emphasizes his focus on voters’ issues, suggesting that Trump’s legal challenges could be a distraction in a general election. In contrast, Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, has defended Trump, even filing an amicus brief supporting Trump’s efforts to remain on the Colorado ballot.
According to a YouGov/CBS News poll conducted last month, 58% of likely GOP caucus voters would support Trump, with DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy trailing at 22%, 13%, and 4% respectively. Among those considering voting for Trump, 54% cited support during his legal struggles as a key reason. Conversely, 57% of those not considering Trump cited his controversial nature and 48% expressed concern about his legal issues.
Trump and his allies have made his legal battles a central campaign issue. Trump made two optional court appearances this week, while his surrogates and rivals campaigned across Iowa. During a speech at the Machine Shed, a popular restaurant in Urbandale, Donald Trump Jr. criticized prosecutors and the cases against his father, which he baselessly described as a conspiracy orchestrated by President Joe Biden.
Trump’s rivals are under increasing pressure to differentiate themselves from the front-runner, as polling has not shown a competitive race for the nomination. When it comes to Trump’s legal challenges, candidates have focused on his electability. “If Trump is the nominee, it’s going to be about January 6, legal issues, criminal trials,” DeSantis said during a CNN debate Wednesday.
Even some of Trump’s staunchest supporters express concerns about his electability. At a house party in Clive for Ramaswamy Thursday night, Pat Goodman, a 57-year-old from West Des Moines, asked the candidate what he thought Trump’s biggest mistake was. Goodman said that while he liked Trump’s policies, he’s debating between caucusing for Ramaswamy or DeSantis because he doesn’t think Trump can draw independents and moderates in a general election.
Ramaswamy, Trump’s most vocal defender in the race, has taken a unique approach to running against the former president, by arguing it would be better for Trump if Ramaswamy wins. Loren Sherman, a 41-year-old from Waukee, attended the Ramaswamy house party in a “Save Trump Vote Vivek” shirt, which included a black and white picture of Trump’s mugshot outlined by the shape of Iowa. Sherman said the shirt was part of a swag bag he received from the campaign as a precinct captain.
Contributions to this report were made by CNN’s Ebony Davis, Kit Maher, and Veronica Stracqualursi.