US House candidates are being selected in North Carolina and Alabama this Tuesday, in elections significantly influenced by recent congressional redistricting. The redrawing of district lines in these states has the potential to alter the political landscape.
North Carolina: A GOP Advantage
In North Carolina, the Republican-controlled General Assembly’s redistricting last fall has given the GOP a significant advantage. The new map is expected to help the Republicans secure at least 10 out of 14 House seats this year, a significant increase from the current 7-7 partisan split. This could potentially help the GOP maintain their slim majority in the chamber after the November elections.
Three Democratic incumbents – Reps. Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel, and Kathy Manning – have chosen not to seek reelection in the newly redrawn, Republican-leaning districts. Additionally, GOP House members Reps. Dan Bishop and Patrick McHenry have also decided to step down after this year, leaving vacancies in districts that favor their party.
Alabama: A Historic Outcome?
In Alabama, the new district lines have led to an incumbent-versus-incumbent primary for one House seat. This could result in a historic outcome this fall if Alabamians elect two Black lawmakers to the US House for the first time.
A legal confrontation that gained national attention resulted in a federal court approving a new congressional map last year. This map gives Alabama’s African American residents, who constitute about 27% of the population, the opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice in a second House district.
The race for the state’s newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District has attracted 18 candidates, with a majority of the Democrats and several of the Republican contenders being African American. Given the state’s racial voting patterns, it is likely that a Democrat will win in the fall, with a Black candidate potentially emerging victorious.
North Carolina: Open Seats Attract Multiple Contenders
The five open seats in North Carolina have drawn a large number of Republican contenders. For example, 14 candidates are vying for the GOP primary for Nickel’s redrawn 13th District seat. The top spenders in the race include Smithfield lawyer Kelly Daughtry, Wake Forest businessman Fred Von Canon, and former federal prosecutor Brad Knott from Raleigh.
Several candidates are also competing for the open seats currently held by Manning and Jackson. Notably, former President Donald Trump has endorsed current state House Speaker Tim Moore and ex-health insurance industry lobbyist Addison McDowell.
The redistricting has also led to the first member-versus-member primary of the 2024 election, with Republican incumbents Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore both vying for the 2nd District seat.
Primary candidates in North Carolina must secure at least 30% of the vote to avoid a potential May 17 runoff.