The survival of Ukraine and the future of the Republican Party rest heavily on the shoulders of House Speaker Mike Johnson. The nation in question is not the United States, which will endure regardless of the upcoming general election’s outcome, but Ukraine, a country still reeling from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion two years ago.
Ukrainian soldiers, entrenched in a brutal trench warfare reminiscent of World War I, are running low on ammunition. There are indications that Russia may soon break the deadlock and tip the balance of the war in its favor. Johnson, a former backbencher who was the last resort to lead the rebellious House GOP majority last year, has the power to alleviate Ukraine’s suffering and secure its survival as an independent nation.
He could permit a vote on a bill that includes $60 billion in aid, a sum the Pentagon claims is necessary for Kyiv to continue its effective resistance. The bill would likely pass with a substantial bipartisan majority. However, Johnson’s hesitation reflects the growing influence of GOP front-runner Donald Trump, his party’s shift away from its globalist pro-democracy roots, and perhaps even his own ambition, as supporting Ukraine’s defense with Democratic votes could jeopardize his speakership.
Johnson is facing mounting pressure from multiple fronts, both domestically and internationally, as crises he has deferred during his short tenure as speaker come to a head. Without a budget agreement with the Democratic Senate, the government could plunge into a partial shutdown by the weekend. His predicament will be underscored at a meeting of the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday, convened by President Joe Biden.
Johnson’s predicament is further complicated as the administration singles him out as the one man who can either thwart or enable Putin’s attempt to erase Ukraine from the map. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that his country cannot repel Russia without the aid. Foreign governments fearing the collapse of the Western coalition against Moscow without US financial and political support have been urging the speaker to act.
Johnson’s rise from obscurity to the speakership has been swift, and he lacks the experience, vote-counting acumen, and leverage needed to whip a Republican majority into shape. His slim majority means he can afford to lose only a few votes among GOP members to pass a bill, giving extremist members disproportionate influence. The fate of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted by his own party last year, casts daily doubt on Johnson’s ability to hold onto his position.
Johnson’s dilemma is deeply rooted in domestic politics but has far-reaching international implications. The question remains whether he can navigate this precarious situation and what the consequences will be for both Ukraine and the GOP.