As the conflict between Israel and Hamas enters its sixth month, President Joe Biden finds himself increasingly embroiled in a foreign crisis that is impacting US domestic politics and his reelection campaign. The geopolitical risks associated with the war were underscored over the weekend when US officials warned of potential retaliation from Iran following an Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus.
Israel has vowed to intensify its operations on the northern border with Lebanon, even as it continues its operations in Gaza against Hamas, the Tehran-backed group responsible for the death of over 1,200 Israelis and the hostage-taking of more than 200 in its unprecedented October attacks. The conflict has resulted in the death of over 30,000 Palestinians, sparking international outrage and concern.
As talks are set to resume in Cairo this week, US forces in the region and Israel remain on high alert for possible retaliatory attacks by Iran. The US has attributed the killing of two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Damascus last week to Israel. Any action by Iran against Israel or US interests could potentially ignite a full-scale Middle East war, a scenario the White House is keen to avoid.
Meanwhile, President Biden is locked in a standoff with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite initial resistance, Netanyahu agreed to open new aid routes into Gaza following a high-stakes phone call with Biden last week. However, the administration has warned that it may reconsider its Gaza policy depending on the number of Palestinian civilian casualties in the coming weeks.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is reaching a critical point. World Food Programme Director Cindy McCain warned that children are dying “as we speak” and that even if massive aid is pumped into Gaza, many will suffer a lifetime of medical after-effects.
At home, Biden is facing backlash from progressive, young, and Arab American voters, potentially jeopardizing his reelection hopes in several key swing states. His handling of the conflict has also drawn criticism from Democratic officeholders, including some of his closest allies, who are calling for conditions to be imposed on billions of dollars in US arms shipments to Israel.
Republicans, on the other hand, have accused Biden of abandoning one of America’s closest allies. Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, is likely to use any escalation of the war to bolster his narrative that things are spiraling out of control under Biden’s watch.
As the conflict drags on, Democrats are growing increasingly frustrated with its impact on Biden’s electoral coalition. The attack on the World Central Kitchen convoy last week seemed to galvanize action in Washington in a way that months of civilian carnage in Gaza had not.
As both the Israeli and US governments warn of potential retaliation from Iran, tensions between the White House and Jerusalem remain high. The possibility of a direct Iranian entry into the war is a concern that crosses party lines in Washington.