The upcoming Michigan primary on Tuesday is set to evaluate not only President Joe Biden’s political standing in a crucial swing state, but also his controversial stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. Biden’s unwavering support for Israel, whose military campaign has reportedly resulted in the death of approximately 30,000 Palestinians according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health, has sparked outrage among a significant portion of American progressives, including many Jewish and Arab Americans.
This discontent is particularly palpable in and around Dearborn, Michigan, home to one of the largest Arab American communities in the U.S. The anger has given rise to a statewide movement among Democratic critics of Israel, urging voters to select “uncommitted” on their ballots as a form of protest.
Despite Biden’s victory in Michigan in 2020, the margin was significantly narrower in 2016 when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. The group spearheading the protest campaign aims to secure at least as many “uncommitted” votes as the margin of Trump’s victory in 2016, in an effort to send a clear message to the Biden administration about the domestic political repercussions of his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Republican Contest: Trump vs. Haley
On the Republican side, Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are set to compete in the first part of the state GOP’s nomination process. The primary vote will be followed by a state convention this weekend, where 39 of the state Republicans’ 55 delegates will be up for grabs. This will be the first GOP primary vote in a state that Biden flipped in 2020.
Biden’s Israel Strategy: A Test of Loyalty
Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, which has resulted in the death of roughly 30,000 Palestinians, including thousands of children, has drawn severe criticism from some Western nations and the United Nations. However, the U.S. government, under Biden’s leadership, has remained steadfast in its support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government.
Activists demanding an immediate ceasefire argue that Biden’s reluctance to do the same, coupled with the horrific images emerging from Gaza daily, is creating a political deadlock that could jeopardize his reelection prospects. As the Listen to Michigan campaign points out, the state could be decided by the narrowest of margins in the upcoming election, and Biden’s Israel policy could cost him thousands of votes.
Haley’s Magic Number
After losing by about 20 points in South Carolina, Haley acknowledged that the 40% of the vote she received in her home state is not the necessary 50% or more she needs to disrupt the Republican presidential primary. However, she also noted that 4 out of 10 is not a “tiny group,” and that there are significant numbers of voters in the Republican primaries who are seeking an alternative to Trump.
Tests for Biden, Trump in Key State
The drama within both the Democratic and Republican contests is unfolding in one of the nation’s most pivotal presidential swing states. Biden is relying on an endorsement from the United Auto Workers union, support from Black voters, and a robust Democratic infrastructure. However, the “uncommitted” campaign could serve as a measure of whether his support for Israel’s war with Hamas poses a significant problem.
On the other hand, Trump is aiming to reconstruct the White working-class coalition that helped him breach the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016. However, amid a Democratic resurgence, Michigan’s GOP has been led by Trump allies insistent on promoting false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.