Initial results from CNN’s exit poll for Ohio’s Republican presidential and Senate primaries reveal that a significant majority of the state’s GOP primary electorate values support for former President Donald Trump in their next US senator. Approximately 70% of respondents indicate that it is at least somewhat important for the next senator to back the former GOP presidential nominee, with over half stating it is of high importance.
Furthermore, nearly 80% of respondents approve of Trump’s performance during his presidency, with about two-thirds expressing optimism that a potential second term would surpass his first. A similar proportion would still deem Trump fit for office even if he were convicted of a crime. However, only about one-third acknowledge President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory as legitimate.
These findings mirror earlier entrance and exit polls in Republican presidential contests, underscoring the extent to which the GOP electorate has shaped itself around Trump’s influence. The primary on Tuesday serves as this year’s inaugural test of Trump’s endorsement power in a contested Senate race.
The victor of the GOP nomination will challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a race that could influence the Senate’s balance of power. Brown, a three-term incumbent, is one of two Democrats seeking reelection in a state that Trump won twice.
Interestingly, about 80% of voters supporting businessman Bernie Moreno, Trump’s favored candidate in the Senate primary, deem it highly important for Ohio’s next senator to support Trump. In contrast, Trump loyalty is similarly important to only about half of those supporting Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and less than a third of those backing state Sen. Matt Dolan.
Exit polls offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of primary voters. However, like all surveys, they provide estimates rather than precise measurements of the electorate. This is particularly true for preliminary exit poll numbers, which are not yet weighted to match the final primary results.
Ohio’s GOP Senate primary voters are largely divided on whether the Republican Party is insufficiently conservative or ideologically correct, with only about a fifth considering the party overly conservative. Meanwhile, 80% identify themselves as conservatives. Approximately three-quarters believe that undocumented immigrants in the US should be deported rather than offered a chance to apply for legal status.
Ohio GOP primary voters are more likely to favor a nationwide ban on most or all abortions, a stance opposed by a majority of GOP presidential primary voters in California, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Few describe the nation’s economy as excellent or good, but about three-quarters report that they are maintaining or improving their financial status. About 90% express dissatisfaction with the current state of the US, with around 40% describing themselves as angry about the nation’s state.
The exit poll for Ohio’s Republican primaries was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It includes 1,197 interviews with Republican primary voters, both Election Day voters and early or absentee voters. Election Day interviews were conducted across 30 different polling places on Election Day, while pre-election interviews were conducted from March 8-16 using telephone, email, and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file. The full sample results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, with larger margins for subgroups.