Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, usually a golden ticket in a GOP primary, has yet to secure victory for businessman Bernie Moreno in Ohio’s three-way primary. This race is the first significant test of Trump’s sway in a contested Senate race this year. The victor will challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the November election, a crucial contest for Senate control.
Democrats are closely monitoring the Republican primary, with an external group promoting Moreno over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Their spending indicates a preference for Moreno to face off against Brown in a state that has been leaning Republican. Despite Trump’s scheduled appearance at a rally supporting Moreno, national Republicans have refrained from endorsing any candidate, confident that any of the three contenders can defeat Brown.
However, Dolan recently gained the support of two influential Ohio Republicans, former Sen. Rob Portman and Gov. Mike DeWine. This endorsement has highlighted the divide within the Ohio GOP between Trump loyalists and the establishment, setting the stage for a showdown between the two self-funded candidates.
Immigration has been a central theme in campaign advertising, with candidates either promoting their commitment to border security or criticizing their opponents for supporting “amnesty.” However, the party’s internal divisions may ultimately determine the primary’s outcome.
Trump’s endorsement of Moreno, a Colombian immigrant who amassed wealth from car dealerships, came in December at the behest of Sen. J.D. Vance. However, recent developments, including an ad attacking Dolan and DeWine’s endorsement, suggest a shift in momentum towards Dolan.
While all three candidates have previously criticized Trump, Dolan is the only one who has not endorsed Trump for president in 2024. Despite this, Dolan’s campaign emphasizes his support for Trump’s policies.
Regardless of who wins the primary, Brown faces a challenging race in a state that Trump won by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. However, Brown has proven his resilience in previous elections. The early financial commitments in Ohio indicate that both parties anticipate a fiercely competitive race.
Each Republican candidate believes they have a unique advantage in defeating Brown. LaRose’s team highlights his statewide elected experience and border service, Dolan’s team emphasizes his fiscal conservatism, and Moreno positions himself as an “outsider” and legal immigrant.
Despite Ohio’s shift towards the Republican party, Democrats still view it as a competitive state. The Brown campaign aims to portray the Republican candidates as too extreme and a threat to Ohio voters’ will.
While running on the ticket with Trump presents challenges, it also offers opportunities. As a noncompetitive presidential state, the Senate race will be the main event in Ohio, allowing Brown’s campaign to dominate paid communications.
Contributor: David Wright, CNN