As President Joe Biden gears up for reelection, national polls often depict him trailing behind Donald Trump. However, these polls don’t tell the whole story. Elections are won state by state through the Electoral College, not by national popular vote.
In the 2020 election, the tightest battleground states were either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina). If Biden can secure all the states in either region, along with the remaining states he won in 2020, he will be reelected.
Current data suggests that Biden’s most straightforward path to a second term lies through the Great Lakes. Recent Fox News polls show Biden and Trump neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, a state Trump won by a hair’s breadth in 2020. In contrast, Trump holds an 8-point lead in Georgia, a state Biden narrowly won four years ago.
These polls are not anomalies. Trump hasn’t led in any Wisconsin poll this cycle that meets CNN’s publication standards. Conversely, he hasn’t trailed in any Georgia poll in over a year. This trend is consistent with other polling data, with Trump generally leading in Arizona and Biden and Trump swapping leads in Pennsylvania.
Recent Pennsylvania polls from Franklin & Marshall College and Quinnipiac University show Biden slightly ahead of Trump, but within the margin of error. Similarly, Trump has generally polled well in Nevada. Limited polling in North Carolina hasn’t been favorable for Biden either.
Biden’s weakest state in the Great Lakes battleground surveys has been Michigan, though he has polled better there than any Sun Belt swing state. He’s also done better in Michigan polls of likely voters than of registered voters.
These trends align with national polls. Biden has seen historically weak support for a Democrat among Hispanic and Black voters nationally. These demographics make up a disproportionate share of the electorate in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, Biden has held his own with White voters, who made up at least 80% of 2020 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Michigan, where White voters make up the lowest share of the electorate, is the Great Lakes swing state where Biden is doing the worst in 2024. This aligns with Biden’s recent visits to the Wolverine State.
However, Biden cannot solely rely on winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His Michigan polling hasn’t been strong, and winning these three states plus every state he won by at least 5 points in 2020 would give him exactly 270 electoral votes, leaving no room for error.
If Biden can improve his standing with Hispanic and/or Black voters, his polling in the Sun Belt could improve. With several months until November, Biden must explore multiple paths to victory. However, at this point, his easiest path to 270 electoral votes seems to be through the North, not the South.