Recent CNN polling conducted by SSRS reveals a complex political landscape in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that played a pivotal role in the 2020 presidential election. The polls suggest a tight race between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with their choices and indicating a potential for change in their voting decisions.
Key Findings
In Pennsylvania, the race is evenly split between Trump and Biden, each securing 46% of the vote. However, Trump takes the lead in Michigan with 50% of the vote compared to Biden’s 42%. These polls were conducted after both candidates secured enough delegates to clinch their party’s nomination for president.
Interestingly, Biden’s winning coalition from the 2020 election appears to be more intact in Pennsylvania than in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads among women, voters of color, college graduates, and independents, while in Michigan, these demographics are more evenly split or leaning towards Trump.
Room for Change
While most voters in both states have already made up their minds, about a quarter in each state are open to changing their minds before the election. This could potentially swing the outcome in these two pivotal states, both of which Biden won by slim margins in 2020.
There’s even more room for movement among key subgroups. In Michigan, 45% of independents and 41% of voters younger than 35 are less than solidly decided, and it’s 32% of independents and 34% of younger voters in Pennsylvania.
Voter Satisfaction and Expectations
Less than half of voters in either state are satisfied with their choices in the presidential race. In Michigan, satisfaction has dropped since a fall survey was conducted as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s now-suspended campaign for the GOP nomination gained traction.
Majorities of voters in both states believe that a second Trump term would bring fundamental changes to the US, while only about a quarter say the same about a second Biden term. In both states, more see the change Trump might bring as a good thing than a bad one.
Looking Ahead
Despite Biden’s underwater approval ratings in both states, he retains the support of double-digit shares of those who disapprove of his work as president. In a hypothetical four-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornel West in addition to Trump and Biden, significant support for Kennedy is suggested in both states.
Both Biden and Trump are viewed unfavorably by majorities of Michigan and Pennsylvania voters, and about 1 in 6 in each state hold an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump.
These CNN polls were conducted online and by telephone by SSRS from March 13 to 18. In Michigan, a random sample of 1,097 registered voters was surveyed, and in Pennsylvania, it was a random sample of 1,132 registered voters.