Former President Donald Trump and Republican contender Nikki Haley are set to host competing rallies this Saturday in North Carolina, offering an early glimpse into Trump’s long-term strategy beyond the state’s Super Tuesday primary. North Carolina, a state that Trump narrowly secured in 2020, is emerging as a crucial part of President Joe Biden’s reelection strategy.
“North Carolina is going to be very competitive for both sides, and no one will be able to take it for granted,” said Paul Shumaker, a seasoned operative behind many of the GOP’s statewide victories in recent years. “It’s going to be in a constant state of flux.”
The weekend visits from Trump, Haley, and Vice President Kamala Harris underscore the increasing importance of North Carolina on the electoral map. Harris, during her Friday visit, attended a training session for young campaign volunteers in Durham, emphasizing the importance of investing in communities.
North Carolina’s changing demographics, particularly in fast-growing suburban areas, present an opportunity for Biden’s campaign. The state has added 836,000 voters since 2012, with more than a third in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, which Biden won four years ago by about a 2-to-1 margin.
However, Republicans face a challenge in maintaining their hold on the state. “It’s math,” said Sarah Reidy-Jones, a former Republican operative. “You see how many out-of-state licenses are driving around here.”
Haley, who has won significant support, directly confronted Trump and his dismissive attitude towards her supporters. “If you don’t think that you need 30 to 40% of us, you are showing exactly why you are going to lose a general election,” she said.
North Carolina’s highly educated electorate could further expose Trump’s challenge in convincing college-educated voters to support his third White House bid. The percentage of the population with an undergraduate degree or higher is growing faster in North Carolina than almost any other state.
Trump’s narrowing margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 offers sufficient rationale for his campaign advisers to take the contest seriously. “I think all the ones we know are competitive are competitive,” said Trump senior adviser Susie Wiles.
Meanwhile, the Republican party appears poised to nominate Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the state’s open governor’s race. Robinson’s nomination is likely to provide more firepower to Democrats already looking to make abortion access a central issue of the campaign in North Carolina.
Anderson Clayton, the state’s Democratic Party chair, is bullish on her party’s prospects and believes the Biden campaign is taking seriously the potential of North Carolina. “We know that the state is 50/50, and we’ve got to fight for every single vote across all 100 counties,” Clayton said.
The Trump campaign intends to court military families in North Carolina, home to eight bases, by arguing that the Biden administration has overstretched American forces. It also plans to hit the president over his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Republicans believe that North Carolina’s fast-growing block of unaffiliated voters can be swayed by the record influx of migrants at the Southern border and continuing unease with the economy.
Contributor: Alayna Treene, CNN