In the wake of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, only 13% of Americans believe Donald Trump is being treated like other criminal defendants, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The nation appears split on whether Trump is being treated more harshly (34%) or more leniently (34%) than other defendants.
The poll, initiated shortly after the jury selection phase for the trial began on April 15, reveals that only 44% of Americans have confidence in the jury’s ability to deliver a fair verdict. Conversely, 56% are skeptical about the likelihood of a fair outcome.
Public opinion on Trump’s courtroom demeanor is also divided, with 42% considering his behavior inappropriate, 25% deeming it appropriate, and a third of respondents stating they lack enough information to form an opinion.
Charges and Presidential Fitness
The charges against Trump, related to allegedly falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election, are increasingly seen as irrelevant to his presidential fitness. The percentage of Americans holding this view has risen from 39% last summer to 45% now.
Interestingly, about three-quarters of voters who currently support Trump against President Joe Biden in the 2024 election claim they will continue to back him even if he is convicted of a crime. However, 24% of Trump’s supporters admit a conviction might cause them to reconsider their support.
Impact of Possible Conviction
The potential political impact of a conviction is hard to predict. However, an analysis of the characteristics of Trump supporters who might reconsider their support provides some insight. These supporters tend to be younger, more racially diverse, more likely to have voted for Biden in 2020, and more likely to acknowledge Biden’s legitimate victory in the 2020 election. They also tend to be political independents and ideologically moderate.
However, these potential defectors are not guaranteed to support Biden if Trump is convicted. In fact, 81% of these Trump supporters say there’s no chance they would vote for the current president.
Public Perception of Charges
Overall, a majority of Americans believe that the charges in each of the four cases against Trump cast at least some doubts on his fitness for the presidency. More than 4 in 10 Americans believe that if true, charges related to Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and efforts to overturn the 2020 election should disqualify him from the presidency.
However, public opinion on the relevance of the cases to Trump’s fitness for office appears to be shifting. There has been a small increase in the percentage of people who believe charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election and those related to classified documents found at Trump’s home are irrelevant to his fitness for the presidency.
Partisan Views on Trial
Views about the trial and its potential outcome are divided along party lines. Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents believe Trump is being treated more leniently than other defendants, while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents largely believe he’s being treated more harshly.
Confidence in the jury’s ability to deliver a fair verdict is lowest among Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans. However, even among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, 40% express little or no confidence in the jury’s ability to reach a fair verdict.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.