According to CNN’s estimates, New Hampshire’s Republican primary witnessed a record-breaking turnout of over 320,000 voters. The voters were to choose between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. This surge in turnout marks a significant shift from the recent Iowa caucuses, where Republican participation was lower compared to the 2016 contested Republican primary without an incumbent.
Trump’s victory in New Hampshire marks his second decisive win, setting the stage for building a delegate lead. This victory is noteworthy as no other non-incumbent Republican candidate has won the early contests in both Iowa and New Hampshire. However, Trump’s universal name recognition as a former president gives him some advantages of incumbency.
Trump’s Winning Strategy
Trump’s performance in the 2024 primary surpassed his 2016 results in nearly every New Hampshire town, with most margins in double digits. This improvement can be attributed to the dynamics of the race, with Trump facing a single major challenger this year, unlike in 2016. In New Hampshire’s three largest cities – Concord, Nashua, and Manchester, Trump’s performance was nearly 20 percentage points better than in 2016.
2024 vs. 2016
With final votes still being counted, Trump secured a commanding majority of over 54%. Haley, despite placing second with over 132,000 votes (about 43% of the total), garnered more support in 2024 than Trump did in his 2016 victory. Trump’s vote total of over 166,000 also sets a new record for the most votes ever won by a candidate in the New Hampshire primary in either party.
The 2016 Republican race was contested among a large number of candidates, with Trump winning the primary with less than 36% of the vote. In contrast, the 2024 primary was mostly a two-person race, with Haley being Trump’s only remaining major challenger.
Democratic Primary: Lower Turnout
On the Democratic side, fewer than 89,000 total votes were recorded, according to CNN’s calculations. This lower turnout is likely due to the standoff between the Democratic Party and New Hampshire’s state government over the primary date. Despite not appearing on the ballot, President Joe Biden won as a write-in candidate, demonstrating his strength in the party.
Independent Voters
While Haley made efforts to attract independent voters, they represented similar portions of the Republican primary electorate as in 2016. This year, Trump won nearly three-quarters of registered Republican voters, a significant increase from the 33% he secured in 2016.
Iowa vs. New Hampshire: A Tale of Two States
Iowa and New Hampshire presented two distinct versions of American Republicans. Trump won more than half the vote in both states, despite their differing views on key issues such as abortion. The “Make America Great Again” movement, popularized by Trump in 2016, had varying levels of support in the two states, with New Hampshire showing less affiliation than Iowa.