In an unprecedented political landscape, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson finds himself leading one of the smallest House majorities in history. This majority is set to shrink even further with Democrat Tom Suozzi’s recent victory in a New York special election.
Suozzi triumphed over Republican Mazi Pilip, vying for the seat left vacant by former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress last year. Upon Suozzi’s induction, the House will be divided with Republicans controlling 219 seats and Democrats holding 213.
With a slim margin of 219 to 213, the Republicans can afford to lose only two votes to pass legislation on party-line votes, assuming all members are present and voting. Post-induction, the House will still have three vacancies.
Recent resignations have contributed to this situation. Former New York Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins resigned earlier this month, former Ohio GOP Rep. Bill Johnson stepped down last month, and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy resigned at the end of last year.
The precarious majority poses a significant challenge for Speaker Johnson, who has little room for error as he attempts to balance the demands of various factions within his party. The influence of hardline conservatives has already been demonstrated, most notably when they successfully moved to oust McCarthy from the speakership in a historic vote last year.
The size of the far-right faction within the House Republican Conference can fluctuate depending on the issue at hand. Last month, a group of approximately a dozen hardliners staged a rebellion on the House floor, voting down a procedural vote in protest against a spending deal Johnson had negotiated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The shrinking majority has compelled Johnson to employ a procedural move known as suspension of the rules, allowing some bills to be directly put on the floor. However, this strategy requires a two-thirds majority to pass bills, necessitating significant Democratic support and further straining relations between Johnson and his party’s right wing.
Johnson also faces the challenge of balancing the interests of moderate members from battleground districts, who are crucial to maintaining the majority and will be under intense scrutiny this election season. Of the 18 Republicans in House districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020, only 17 remain following the expulsion of Santos. The political survival of these vulnerable members will be crucial in determining whether the GOP can retain its majority.