In a recent turn of events, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has significantly narrowed the gap with former President Donald Trump in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire, as per a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
While Trump still maintains a considerable lead with 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire supporting him, Haley is not far behind at 32%. The rest of the field, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 5%, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%, trails significantly.
Haley’s support has seen a surge of 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, marking a steady rise that began last summer. In contrast, her opponents, including Trump, have seen their numbers remain stable or slightly decrease since autumn.
Haley’s popularity has particularly grown among undeclared voters, New Hampshire’s term for independent registrants, with an 18-point increase since November. She has also gained 20 points among ideologically moderate voters. These gains coincide with an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and a concerted campaign push in the state.
The New Hampshire GOP primary is scheduled for January 23. Haley’s strong challenge to Trump in the state reflects the unique composition of New Hampshire’s primary electorate, which includes a larger proportion of moderate and less staunchly partisan voters compared to Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, set to take place next week.
Trump has crossed the 50% mark in most recent polling on the Iowa caucuses and holds wider majorities in national polls on the Republican nomination. However, Haley leads Trump by 42 points among moderates, 26 points among undeclared voters, and 12 points among college graduates in New Hampshire.
Despite Haley’s rising popularity, her supporters are less firmly committed than Trump’s base. While 80% of Trump’s backers have definitively decided on him, only a slim 54% majority of Haley’s current supporters say the same. This leaves room for potential shifts in the race in the final two weeks of campaigning in New Hampshire.
Among those whose first choice for the nomination is neither Haley nor Trump, 36% say that Haley would be their second choice for the nomination, with 30% picking Trump as their top alternative. Those backing Christie lean heavily towards Haley, with 65% saying they would support her if Christie were not in the race.
Currently, only Trump and Haley are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by likely GOP primary voters in the state. However, ratings for each of the major candidates have declined since last September, with DeSantis experiencing a particularly notable drop.
While only about 4 in 10 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they plan to vote for Trump, a 69% majority oppose the ruling in neighboring Maine that Trump should not appear on the ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban,” which Trump’s team is challenging.
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in New Hampshire stands at 42%, with 57% disapproving, according to the poll. Despite not filing to appear on New Hampshire’s primary ballot in compliance with the Democratic National Committee’s delegate selection rules, Biden dominates the Democratic field with 69% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they will write in his name.
The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online from January 4-8 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The full sample of 1,864 New Hampshire adults drawn from a probability-based panel has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.