Initial results from CNN’s exit poll reveal that approximately two-thirds of North Carolina’s Republican primary voters would still deem former President Donald Trump suitable for the presidency, even if he were to be convicted of a crime. A slightly smaller proportion, just over half, of Virginia’s GOP primary voters share this sentiment.
Approximately 40% of North Carolina’s primary voters identify themselves as part of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. This figure is slightly lower in Virginia, where about one-third of voters align with the MAGA movement. These figures are lower than the 46% of voters in Iowa’s caucuses who identified with the MAGA slogan, but higher than the 33% in New Hampshire.
Exit polls, while not precise measurements of the electorate, offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of primary voters. These preliminary numbers provide a snapshot of the type of voters participating in the primaries.
In North Carolina, nearly 80% of voters identify as conservative, with 40% considering themselves very conservative. In Virginia, about two-thirds identify as conservative, with 30% considering themselves very conservative. These figures place these states somewhere in between Iowa, where about half of voters identified as very conservative, and New Hampshire, where only about one quarter did.
Most voters in North Carolina and Virginia made their presidential candidate selection early on, according to the early exit polls. Approximately two-thirds of Virginia’s GOP primary voters made their decision before the year even started, with only about 15% deciding in the campaign’s final week. In North Carolina, about half of GOP primary voters made up their minds before 2024, with about one-fifth deciding in the final week.
The exit polls for North Carolina, Virginia, and California’s Republican presidential primaries and California’s US Senate primary were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. The North Carolina Republican primary poll includes 1,484 interviews with Republican primary voters across 19 early in-person voting sites and 30 different polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample. The Virginia Republican primary poll includes 1,196 interviews with Republican primary voters across 30 different polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample.
The California Republican primary poll includes 585 interviews conducted prior to Election Day on February 25-March 3, using telephone, email and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample. The California Senate primary poll includes 1,408 interviews conducted prior to Election Day on February 25-March 3, using telephone, email and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the full sample.
This story has been updated with additional information.