The South Carolina Republican presidential primary has traditionally been a pivotal event in the nomination process. The state’s track record for selecting the eventual GOP nominee is unparalleled among early-voting states. Since 1980, Mitt Romney in 2012 is the only Republican who clinched the nomination without winning South Carolina. This year, if the pattern continues, it could signal a significant setback for Nikki Haley’s campaign.
Donald Trump, the former president and current Republican front-runner, is leading the polls by a significant margin. He has consistently led every poll in the state by at least 20 points this year. Polls that meet CNN’s standards for publication show Trump leading by at least 30 points this month. To put this into context, there is no precedent in the past 40 years of a well-polled presidential primary where a candidate has managed to overcome the deficit Haley currently faces in her home state.
Another worrying sign for Haley is that since the modern primary era began in 1972, no major-party nominee has ever lost their home state during the primary season. Trump has demonstrated a knack for defeating fellow Republicans in the states where they first won elections. Notably, Trump defeated Marco Rubio in the 2016 Florida primary, leading to Rubio’s withdrawal from the race. It remains to be seen whether Haley will follow suit, although she has indicated otherwise.
While Haley’s chances of winning South Carolina seem slim, she is outperforming her national baseline. Recent polls from Marquette University Law School and Quinnipiac University show her trailing Trump by about 60 points on average nationwide. This aligns with a historical pattern where candidates typically perform better in their home states during the primary calendar.
However, the outlook for Haley could become even more challenging after her home state votes. Even if Trump wins Saturday’s primary, as every poll suggests, the scale of his victory remains a question. In 2016, Trump lost two counties in the South Carolina primary: Charleston and Richland. A Trump sweep of both counties this time would likely secure all of the state’s delegates for him and indicate that any remaining resistance to Trump within the Republican electorate is waning.
Both counties have relatively high levels of college graduates, who have historically been most resistant to Trump in GOP primaries. Trump significantly underperformed among college graduates in the Iowa GOP caucuses last month and lost to Haley in the New Hampshire primary among this demographic. If Trump wins college graduates in the South Carolina primary, it would align with national polling of the Republican electorate.
If the polls are accurate about Trump, it raises a significant question: Will he lose anywhere during the primaries? Utah and Washington, DC, are the two places where Trump performed the weakest in 2016. Victories there next month would all but guarantee Trump a milestone no other nonincumbent Republican has achieved in the modern presidential primary era: winning every single contest. This would leave little doubt that Trump is the heart of the GOP.
This story has been updated with additional information.