Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign is facing a critical test in her home state’s Republican primary. After a series of losses to former President Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and the US Virgin Islands, Haley’s bid for the GOP presidential nomination is on the brink. South Carolina could potentially push her campaign over the edge this Saturday.
Trump has consistently led in South Carolina polls, both before and after Haley emerged as his final obstacle to a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination. Almost all of the state’s top GOP elected officials are backing Trump, and the large crowds at his campaign rallies suggest a landslide victory is imminent.
Despite the odds, Haley’s campaign remains determined. “We know the odds. We know the stakes,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney told reporters. “Eyes wide open, we will take the arrows, we will take the slings, but we are focused on the fight ahead.”
Haley has vowed to continue her campaign regardless of the South Carolina outcome, promising to press on to Super Tuesday in March and potentially beyond. “South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday, I’ll still be running for president,” Haley said. “I’m not going anywhere.”
The Trump campaign, however, seems unconcerned about Haley’s resolve. In a memo released as Haley was pledging to stay in the race, Trump’s team declared that “the end is near for Nikki Haley,” labeling her a “wailing loser hell-bent on an alternative reality and refusing to come to grips with her imminent political mortality.”
Four Key Factors to Watch in South Carolina
1. Can Trump Deliver the Knockout Punch?
Unless there’s a major upset, discussions about the primary will likely focus on Trump’s margin of victory. Will a significant deficit force Haley to reconsider her plans? Haley and her campaign have consistently dismissed any suggestion of ending her bid before next month, but she wouldn’t be the first candidate to change her tune when confronted with disappointing results.
2. Haley’s Path to Victory?
Many South Carolina political insiders do not believe Haley has a viable path to victory. Much of what made Haley a national political figure – her call as governor for the removal of the Confederate battle flag from the statehouse grounds – is anathema to the state’s conservative GOP base. However, the open primary in South Carolina allows Democrats and independents to cast ballots in the GOP race, offering a glimmer of hope for Haley.
3. Can Trump Expand His Base?
Trump doesn’t need to expand his base to win in South Carolina. However, his weak showing among independents, as evidenced in New Hampshire, is a concern for his campaign. With independents allowed to vote in the South Carolina contest as well, we might get some insight into whether Trump has done anything to help his cause with these potential general election swing voters.
4. The Delegate Math
Ultimately, the only concrete measure of success is delegates. The eventual nominee will need 1,215 of them. Trump currently leads Haley, 63 to 17. With 50 at stake in South Carolina, Haley could theoretically jump into the lead. However, it’s more likely that she will be shut out entirely.
As the primary calendar progresses, time is running out for Haley. More than 850 delegates will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday, when states like California and Texas vote. Haley will be desperate to avoid a headline-grabbing shutout in her home state, which could discourage potential supporters ahead of these larger contests.
Contributor: Ethan Cohen, CNN