In the race for South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are vying for the support of an electorate that leans heavily conservative, resembling more closely the political landscape of Iowa than that of New Hampshire. This is according to preliminary data from CNN’s exit poll.
Similar to the Iowa caucuses held in January, over 40% of South Carolina primary voters identify with the MAGA movement. Approximately 80% label themselves as conservatives, with over 40% considering themselves very conservative. Interestingly, only about a third of the voters accept Joe Biden as the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election, a figure that is lower than in New Hampshire where nearly half of primary voters acknowledged Biden’s victory.
In the Iowa caucuses, Trump emerged victorious with 51% of the vote, while Haley lagged behind in third place, trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who later withdrew from the race. The contest was tighter in New Hampshire, but Trump still prevailed with 54% of the vote against Haley’s 43%.
Exit polls, while not precise measurements, offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of primary voters. The preliminary exit poll data, though not yet weighted to match the final primary results, provides a snapshot of the participating electorate.
The early exit poll also revealed that a majority of South Carolina GOP primary voters had made their decision before 2024 even began. Over three-quarters of voters had chosen their presidential candidate prior to January, with less than a tenth deciding in the week leading up to the vote.
While voters’ decisions are multifaceted and cannot be boiled down to a single issue or candidate attribute, the exit poll does offer some insight into the campaign’s resonating themes. Just under 40% of primary voters were primarily seeking a candidate who would fight for them, with another third desiring a candidate who shared their values. Fewer voters prioritized temperament or electability.
The poll also highlighted a significant divide between Trump and Haley supporters. An overwhelming 90% of Trump voters cast their vote primarily in support of him, rather than against his opponent. While most Haley voters were also primarily motivated by support for her, a notable minority – about 40% – cast their vote as a form of protest against Trump.
The South Carolina Republican presidential primary exit poll was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It involved 1,508 interviews with Republican primary voters at 38 different polling places on Election Day. The results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, with larger margins for subgroups.
This story has been updated with additional information.