The first down-ballot primaries of the year on Super Tuesday promise to be more impactful than the day’s presidential contests, which are unlikely to significantly alter the course of the Democratic and Republican races. The primaries for the US Senate and governorship are on the ballot, but the most consequential are the US House primaries, where Republicans are defending a slim majority.
California: The Epicenter of the Battle for the House
California is at the heart of the struggle for control of the House. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the House, and they are targeting seven GOP-held seats in California alone. Five of these seats would have gone to President Joe Biden in 2020 under the current district lines, making them potential easy targets for Democrats looking to flip seats.
Other States in the Spotlight
Other states holding primaries for competitive House races on Tuesday include North Carolina and Texas, and to a lesser extent, Alabama, where redistricting has created a new district that’s much more favorable to Democrats. The four states, along with Arkansas, also have primaries for seats seen as safe for either party, but the nominating contests could serve as key ideological tests.
Senate Primaries: Texas and California
Only Texas and California have Senate primaries on Tuesday. Republicans need to gain one or two seats in the fall – depending on who wins the White House – to secure the majority. The Texas race for GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s seat has become increasingly important for Senate Democrats in what is otherwise a challenging landscape for them.
Gubernatorial Primaries: North Carolina
North Carolina is also hosting gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. The open-seat contest is expected to draw intense attention in this presidential battleground state, which former President Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2020 and which Biden is hoping to flip.
Key Races and Things to Watch
The outcomes of several House primaries on Tuesday will shape just how competitive these key races will be in the general election. Most of them are in California, where candidates from all parties run on the same primary ballot, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advancing to November.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
Nowhere is the risk and opportunity of the top-two primary system clearer than in California’s 22nd Congressional District. GOP Rep. David Valadao, a perennial Democratic target in a Central Valley district that would have backed Biden by 13 points, is facing competition from both sides on Tuesday – two Democrats and one other Republican are also on the ballot.
California’s 45th District
The 45th District, held by GOP Rep. Michelle Steel, offers Democratic voters a choice between multiple candidates in this Orange County seat. Garden Grove Council Member Kim Nguyen-Penaloza has the backing of BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, as well as a handful of members of the California congressional delegation.
California’s 47th District
The 47th District is open because Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is running for Senate. Republicans hope former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter in 2022, will have a better shot at flipping this Orange County seat without challenging an incumbent.
Looking Ahead
While California has the largest number of noteworthy House primaries on Tuesday, there are also contests in Texas and North Carolina for seats likely to be competitive in the fall. The general election matchups in a pair of South Texas seats – the 15th District, held by GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and the 34th District, held by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez – look like they’re going to be rematches from 2022.
Incumbents Facing Primaries
Several incumbents in safe seats are facing threats from within their own parties on Tuesday – and while those internecine contests might not necessarily affect partisan control, they can reveal a lot about where the base stands.
California Senate Primary
The jockeying for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat began well before she died. And it’s only intensified since Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Laphonza Butler to succeed Feinstein and Butler decided not to run for the full term.
Texas Democratic Senate Primary
US Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player who flipped a Dallas-area House seat in 2018, appears well-positioned financially to win the Democratic nod to take on Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who only faces token opposition in his primary.
North Carolina Gubernatorial Primaries
Both parties are picking their nominees on Tuesday in one of only two states with competitive gubernatorial races in 2024 (New Hampshire is the other).
Contributor: David Wright, CNN