Former President Donald Trump, once the world’s most powerful man and potentially again, faces a stark reality check as his first criminal trial commences. Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has often presented himself as an omnipotent force, seemingly above the law and decorum. However, with the jury selected for his Manhattan hush money trial, his fate now lies in the hands of the legal system.
Trump’s lifelong belief in his immunity from accountability is about to be tested. Six months away from a potential return to the White House, Trump finds himself unable to control the proceedings that could threaten his liberty. His usual tactics of theatrics, obfuscation, and intimidation hold no sway in a courtroom.
The trial’s impact on Trump’s schedule and demeanor underscores his unique position as a presidential candidate. Regardless of the trial’s outcome, voters will be reminded of his character questions and legal entanglements. Trump has pleaded not guilty in three more looming criminal cases.
Trump’s insistence on testifying, despite potential harm to his case, may stem from his loss of control over events. He has already begun to undermine the prosecution in the minds of voters who will decide in November whether they want him back as their president.
The trial arises from a hush money payment to former adult-film star Stormy Daniels, which prosecutors allege was made to mislead voters in the 2016 election. Trump denies any affair and has pleaded not guilty to charges of falsifying business records as part of the scheme.
The trial is expected to be a personally testing experience for Trump, with likely witnesses including former associates or friends whose testimony the ex-president is likely to view as a betrayal.
Prosecutors in the case brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg must prove only Trump’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt in the courtroom. The jurors have been extensively cross-examined to ensure they make their judgment based on the law and the evidence rather than the political overtones of the case.
Trump is baselessly arguing that he’s part of an orchestrated campaign of legal weaponization and victimization by the White House to thwart his 2024 bid. But even though there’s no evidence Biden has had any involvement in Bragg’s case, some voters may perceive this case as simply the presumptive GOP nominee being pursued by a Democratic prosecutor.
Despite endless speculation, there is no way to know how voters – especially those in critical swing states – might respond to a conviction of Trump in this case, or in the other matters that look increasingly unlikely to come to trial before the election.
While most of the pretrial focus has been on a possible conviction, an acquittal of the presumptive GOP nominee could also have unpredictable political consequences in a race that a new CNN Poll of Polls on Sunday showed as a virtual dead heat between the previous president and the current one.
The deeply consequential political and personal stakes for the former president will become even clearer when the first trial begins for real on Monday.