In the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses, former President Donald Trump has emerged as the clear frontrunner among his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa.
Trump is the first choice for 48% of likely caucusgoers, a significant lead over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 20% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%. The remaining field trails with less than 10% support. Trump’s support has remained strong, with 51% backing him in the December poll and 43% in October.
Interestingly, about 68% of likely caucusgoers have already made up their minds about their preferred candidate. Trump’s supporters are particularly steadfast, with 82% stating their unwavering support, a notable increase from 70% in December.
Support for Haley and DeSantis is less solidified, with 63% and 64% of their supporters respectively expressing firm commitment. However, both candidates have managed to secure a majority of their supporters for the first time in the NBC/DMR poll’s tracking.
Trump’s supporters also exhibit more enthusiasm compared to those of Haley or DeSantis. A whopping 88% of Trump-backing likely caucusgoers express extreme or very high enthusiasm for him, while only 62% of DeSantis’s and 39% of Haley’s supporters express the same level of enthusiasm.
Trump’s support transcends major demographic and political divides, with over 50% support among likely caucusgoers without college degrees, registered Republicans, evangelical Christians, and first-time attendees. Haley and DeSantis perform better among independents and college graduates, and evangelical Christians respectively.
The poll also reveals Trump as the most favorably viewed candidate, with a 69% favorability rating, compared to 58% for DeSantis, 52% for Vivek Ramaswamy, and 48% for Haley.
In the final 2016 Iowa Poll, Trump had 28% support, trailing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s 23%, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s 15%. However, Cruz narrowly defeated Trump in the final results of that year’s Iowa caucuses.
The latest DMR/NBC/Mediacom poll was conducted by telephone from January 7 to 12 among a random sample of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers. The results have an error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
This story has been updated with additional information.