Despite the absence of any public polls conducted in January, former President Donald Trump’s commanding lead in Iowa’s Republican caucuses is undeniable. The December polls positioned Trump as the most formidable Republican contender, leaving many to question the relevance of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who trailed Trump by over 30 points in the same polls.
DeSantis and Haley are set to square off in a CNN debate on Wednesday night, their last opportunity to make a significant impact before next week’s contest. Trump, however, has once again declined to participate in the debate, opting instead for a Fox News town hall.
While Iowa’s results have historically been poor predictors of the New Hampshire primary, they can help narrow the field and provide a momentum boost heading into New Hampshire.
DeSantis Struggles in New Hampshire
DeSantis is currently underperforming in New Hampshire, with the latest CNN poll placing him in fifth place with a mere 5% of voter support. If DeSantis fails to secure at least third place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his chances of securing the Republican presidential nomination seem slim. His campaign must be acutely aware of this, given the history of southern conservatives who gambled everything on Iowa and subsequently withdrew from the race.
Haley Eyes New Hampshire
Unlike DeSantis, Haley is not merely seeking to keep her campaign afloat post-Iowa. She aims to use Iowa as a springboard to New Hampshire. Our latest poll shows her trailing Trump by just 7 points in New Hampshire. Haley’s support has grown from 20% in November to 32% now, while Trump stands at 39%.
Despite her slim chances of winning in Iowa, Haley’s performance there could still significantly impact her campaign. History shows that the best way to gain momentum from Iowa is to outperform polling expectations. If Haley can exceed her polling in Iowa, she could potentially replicate Democrat Gary Hart’s 1984 campaign, where a better-than-expected finish in Iowa propelled him from a distant second in New Hampshire to a strong first place.
With 65% of Chris Christie’s New Hampshire supporters selecting Haley as their second choice, a strong performance in Iowa could see these voters shift to Haley’s camp. A win in New Hampshire would position Haley as Trump’s main rival ahead of the South Carolina primary, her home state.
The Bottom Line
Despite Trump’s seemingly unassailable lead in Iowa, the stakes remain high for DeSantis and Haley. Their performances in Iowa could significantly impact their campaigns moving forward, particularly in New Hampshire. However, these scenarios remain hypothetical at this stage. If Haley fails to make a significant impact in Iowa, her momentum heading into New Hampshire could be severely affected.