In a hypothetical 2024 presidential face-off, former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over current President Joe Biden, according to a recent national poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal. The poll suggests that Biden’s support is somewhat weakened by “disaffected Democrats.”
Registered Voters’ Presidential Preferences Vary
The survey reveals that the presidential preferences of registered voters vary across several scenarios, indicating the fluid nature of voters’ intentions at this early stage of the race. When asked to choose between Trump and Biden, 47% of registered voters in the US currently express their support for Trump, while 43% favor Biden. Approximately one in ten voters remain undecided. These findings align with other recent national polls, which have generally shown a close race with no clear leader or a slight advantage for Trump.
Biden’s Support Among 2020 Voters Wanes
The Wall Street Journal poll shows that Biden retains the support of only 87% of his 2020 voters, compared to 94% of 2020 Trump voters who say they would support the Republican candidate again. The poll also suggests that undecided voters lean Democratic in other survey questions, indicating that they could potentially be swayed to support Biden nearly a year from now.
Impact of Hypothetical Legal Scenarios on Voter Preferences
When voters are asked to consider a hypothetical situation in which Trump is convicted of a felony in “either the classified documents or January 6th federal trials” before the election, they are almost evenly divided between the two candidates. Under these circumstances, 46% say they would back Biden, while 45% say they would support Trump. The inclusion of potential third-party or independent candidates slightly increases Trump’s lead over Biden.
Biden’s Performance Against Other Potential Republican Nominees
In hypothetical matchups with two other potential Republican nominees, Biden ties with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (45% each) but trails significantly behind former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (51% Haley, 34% Biden).
National Views on Inflation and Biden’s Approval Rating
The national outlook remains undeniably grim, with only 26% of registered voters believing that the US has made progress on inflation over the past year, a slight increase from 20% in August. Biden’s approval rating stands at 37% among registered voters, according to the poll.
Trump Leads in Potential GOP Primary
The Wall Street Journal also examined the upcoming GOP primary, finding Trump leading with 59% support among potential Republican primary voters nationally. Haley and DeSantis are essentially tied for a distant second place, with 15% and 14% support respectively. This is consistent with other recent polls on the Republican primary, which generally show Trump with majority support among the potential GOP electorate nationally.
The poll was conducted between November 29 and December 4, with a random national sample of 1,500 registered voters. The results for the full sample of adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points.