In the wake of the presidential primaries, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS indicates a potential rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in the 2020 general election. The poll reveals Trump slightly leading Biden, reflecting the nation’s divided sentiments towards the two candidates.
Public Opinion on Candidates
According to the poll, 49% of registered voters would support Trump if the election were held today, while 45% would back Biden. The remaining 5% expressed a preference for a different candidate. These figures mirror those from a similar CNN poll conducted in the fall. The poll also highlights a significant education gap among voters, with smaller differences observed based on age or race.
Views on Trump and Biden
Both Trump and Biden continue to grapple with unfavorable public opinion, with 59% of Americans holding a negative view of Biden and 55% expressing a similar sentiment towards Trump. A significant majority (66%) believe Biden does not deserve reelection. Furthermore, 63% of Americans perceive Trump’s views and policies as “too extreme,” while 61% consider Biden’s views and policies as “generally mainstream.”
Third-Party Candidates
Despite the popularity of third-party candidates in pre-election polls, their actual support during elections tends to be lower. The poll reveals that 43% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to see another Democrat run as an independent in a Biden-Trump matchup, while 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expressed a similar desire for a Republican candidate.
Trump vs Haley
In a hypothetical general election scenario, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leads Biden among voters nationwide, with 52% supporting her compared to 39% for Biden. However, Haley trails Trump by approximately 50 points among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters when asked who they would prefer as the GOP nominee for president in 2024.
Concerns About Candidates
Concerns about Trump as a candidate remain focused more on his personality and image than on his policies. On the other hand, Democratic concerns about Biden center around his age, with 46% citing this as their biggest concern about him as a presidential candidate.
Voter Motivation
The poll suggests a potential decrease in the enthusiasm gap that favored Republicans in previous polls. Currently, 63% of Republican-aligned voters express extreme motivation to vote in the 2024 presidential election, down from 71% in the fall. Among Democrats, the share of highly motivated voters remains relatively stable at 58%.
Biden’s Approval Rating
Biden’s approval rating among all adults stands at 38% approval and 62% disapproval, similar to figures from the past year. While Democrats are more positive towards his job performance (78% approval), a smaller majority (69%) believe he deserves a second term.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from January 25-30 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 3.8 points for the 983 registered voters surveyed.