Former President Donald Trump, a Republican, appears to be gaining momentum against current President Joe Biden, a Democrat, in the early stages of the potential 2024 election race. Trump is leading in several polls of registered voters, including those in key swing states, marking a significant shift from the 2020 campaign.
However, these early polls may not fully capture Biden’s standing. In a departure from the typical dynamic where Democrats fare better with higher turnout, Biden may gain an edge when pollsters focus on likely voters rather than all registered voters. This suggests that Trump could perform better in an election with higher turnout.
Shifting Poll Numbers
Recent polls illustrate this trend. A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month showed Trump with a 2-point lead among registered voters, while Biden held a 2-point advantage among likely voters. This 4-point shift towards Biden among likely voters is noteworthy.
Similar findings were observed in the last two Marquette University Law School surveys, where Trump led by 4 points among registered voters, but was tied with Biden among likely voters. An October Grinnell College poll also found that 2020 Biden voters were 4 points more likely to say they would definitely vote than 2020 Trump voters.
Special Elections and Voter Turnout
Democrats have been performing well in special elections over the past year, running about 4 points better than Biden did in the same districts in 2020. However, these special elections typically see lower turnout than regular elections.
Contrast this with the Virginia state legislature elections held in November, where Democrats won control of both houses, but by a smaller margin than Biden’s 10-point victory in the state in 2020. This suggests that Republicans may fare better when turnout is higher.
Demographic Shifts and Voter Behavior
Demographic shifts and changing political alliances are also playing a role in this evolving political landscape. The Democratic base is increasingly reliant on college-educated voters, who are more likely to turn out to vote. Meanwhile, Trump is polling better among Black and Hispanic voters and among voters without a college degree. Biden continues to maintain his strength among White voters with a college degree.
Interestingly, Trump is also performing better among young voters than he did four years ago. However, younger voters are generally less likely to turn out than older voters, potentially giving Biden an advantage.
Looking Ahead to 2024
While it’s still early days, these shifts in polling and voter behavior could challenge traditional theories about how turnout impacts elections. As we move closer to the 2024 election, these trends will be crucial to watch in what promises to be a turbulent political year.