Donald Trump’s dominance in the GOP presidential race may be attributed to the Republican electorate’s sharp rightward shift on immigration. This shift, more pronounced than in 2016, has solidified Trump’s hold on the party. As dissatisfaction over President Joe Biden’s border management grows, the overall electorate also appears to be leaning right on immigration, according to recent polls.
If Trump secures the nomination, the key question will be whether swing voters are prepared to align with his aggressive immigration proposals. These include a militarized mass deportation drive and the construction of detention camps to expedite the removal of undocumented immigrants on an unprecedented scale.
Both Biden and Trump are scheduled to visit the border on Thursday, signaling the significant role immigration is likely to play in a potential general election rematch. Currently, the hardening GOP attitudes on immigration have been instrumental in Trump’s strong early primary performance.
Exit polls from 2016 asked GOP voters in 20 states about their stance on “illegal immigrants working in the US”. The majority of voters in all states, except Alabama and Mississippi, were against deportation. However, this year, a majority of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina have expressed support for deportation, indicating a significant shift in attitudes.
Jim McLaughlin, a pollster for Trump’s 2024 campaign, stated that many Republicans, independents, and even Biden voters believe that Trump had effectively managed the immigration issue. Despite the Democrats’ call for comprehensive immigration reform, many Americans believe that the issue was resolved under Trump’s administration.
All GOP candidates in the 2024 presidential race have adopted a hardline stance on immigration. This increased focus and rightward tilt on the issue have clearly benefited Trump. A significant majority of GOP primary voters who support deportation backed Trump in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Trump’s strength among Republicans most concerned about immigration is yielding increasing returns due to a powerful compounding effect. He is winning a larger share of the growing portion of GOP voters who support deportation compared to 2016. This has resulted in a significant portion of Trump’s votes coming from voters who support deportation.
Recent polling results reveal how much of the GOP coalition has rallied behind hardline immigration positions. The share of Republicans who support building a wall along the US-Mexico border – a trademark Trump policy – exceeded 80% in a January Quinnipiac University national poll and the annual American Values Survey conducted last fall by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute.
However, the broader public’s view on the long-term impact of immigrants on American society is not as negative as the assessment among Republicans. Over the years, most Americans have consistently supported a path to citizenship for long-time undocumented immigrants who have not broken the law. These attitudes raise questions about whether Trump, if he wins the nomination, can sustain public support for the militant immigration ideas that are now helping him consolidate his lead in the primaries.
Despite the dissatisfaction with Biden’s record on immigration, it does not guarantee a majority will be willing to accept the alternative Trump is offering. On immigration, as on many other issues, the voters’ decision may hinge on how they weigh their discontent with Biden’s performance against their unease about Trump’s inclinations and intentions.