Former President Donald Trump’s stringent stance on immigration has sparked controversy, with Democrats, including President Joe Biden’s campaign, likening his rhetoric to that of Adolf Hitler. Even some Republicans, such as potential 2024 presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, have distanced themselves from Trump’s comments. Despite the negative media attention, it is not certain that Trump’s remarks will cost him votes.
While there is no current polling data to gauge voter sentiment towards Trump’s specific language on immigration, polls indicate that Trump is more trusted than Biden on immigration and border security issues. Surprisingly, Trump also fares well among immigrant voters.
Recent CNN/SSRS polls on a potential Biden vs. Trump general election matchup reveal a surprising trend. Neither candidate leads among immigrant voters, with both tied at 48%. This is a significant shift from the 2020 election, where Biden won the immigrant vote by approximately 20 points, according to the Cooperative Election Study.
It’s important to note that the immigrant population is less likely to be White than the general voter population. Recent polls show Trump improving his 2020 performance among voters of color, including Black and Hispanic voters.
A separate CNN/SSRS poll from November provides insight into why Trump’s rhetoric may not deter immigrant voters. Over 40% of respondents cited economic concerns, including inflation, as the country’s top issue, while just over 10% named immigration and border security. These figures align with the concerns of the general population.
Even if immigration were the sole voting issue for immigrants, it wouldn’t necessarily disadvantage Trump. When asked which party’s views on immigration aligned with their own, immigrant voters were only 1 point more likely to favor the Democratic Party over the Republican Party, a difference within the margin of error.
While immigrants do not constitute a large portion of the electorate, Trump benefits from the overall trust voters place in him over Biden on immigration and border security issues. A November survey by Marquette University Law School revealed that 50% of registered voters believed Trump would handle these issues better, compared to 27% for Biden.
This is a significant shift from 2020, when Biden and Trump were virtually tied on the same question. This aligns with Gallup’s immigration polling, which shows growing dissatisfaction among Americans with the current level of immigration and an increasing desire for it to be reduced.
Nearly 80% of voters want an increased presence at the southern border to curb illegal immigration, according to a September Marquette poll. This sentiment is shared by a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Even the controversial proposal of building a wall along the US-Mexico border has seen a shift in public opinion, with recent polls showing a majority of voters in favor of Trump’s proposal.
Biden’s approval ratings on immigration and border security are among his lowest. This may be why many voters, including immigrants, are willing to overlook Trump’s rhetoric. They believe Trump is more likely than Biden to align with their preferences on immigration and border security. As Trump continues to dominate the GOP primary and immigration remains one of his strongest issues, it is unlikely he will stop discussing it anytime soon.