Super Tuesday’s exit polls have shed light on the extent to which the Republican electorate has been molded by former President Donald Trump. The polls, conducted by CNN, reveal a GOP electorate that is largely supportive of Trump, even in the face of potential criminal convictions.
These findings are based on data from six states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California. In each of these states, a majority of GOP primary voters expressed their willingness to consider Trump fit for the presidency, even if he were to be convicted of a crime. Furthermore, the majority of the GOP electorate in these states has not acknowledged the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.
Exit polls, while not precise measurements, offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of primary voters. The preliminary numbers from Super Tuesday states are still subject to updates as they have not yet been weighted to match the final primary results.
Trump’s dominance in these states has set him on a trajectory towards his third consecutive GOP nomination. His remaining rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has struggled to gain traction. The views of Republican primary voters and caucusgoers on Trump’s fitness for office and the 2020 election vary from state to state, but the overall sentiment remains largely the same.
In California, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Iowa, 60% or more of voters expressed their willingness to view Trump as fit for the presidency if he were convicted of a crime. This sentiment was shared by smaller majorities in New Hampshire and Virginia. Trump, who currently faces 91 criminal charges across four cases, has pleaded not guilty in all instances.
Only about 46% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters acknowledged Biden’s 2020 election win, with the numbers decreasing from there: 41% in Virginia, 36% in South Carolina, 33% in California, 32% in North Carolina, and just 29% in Iowa. It should be noted that there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.
The responses to these questions also highlight the stark divide between Trump and Haley supporters in their views of the political landscape. In each of these states, about three-quarters or more of Trump’s backers reject the results of the 2020 election, a mirror image of the three-quarters or more of Haley backers in each state who acknowledge Biden’s win.
Despite Trump’s dominance, there are still signs of discontent within the GOP. When asked whether they’d vote Republican in November regardless of the nominee, 70% or more of Trump supporters in Virginia, North Carolina, and California said they would, compared with only one-quarter or less of Haley supporters. This suggests a segment of the party that’s not yet fully ready to embrace Trump.
In each of the six states with entrance and exit polls, a sizable minority of the GOP electorate identified directly as a part of the MAGA, or “Make American Great Again,” movement. Most voters picked either the economy and immigration as their top issue over foreign policy or abortion. Majorities in five states echoed Trump’s hardline immigration stances, marking a shift from eight years ago when majorities of GOP primary voters favored opportunities for undocumented immigrants working in the US to obtain legal status.
Exit poll data this year finds GOP primary voters divided in their desired approach to abortion policy in a post-Roe v. Wade era. Majorities in California, Virginia, and New Hampshire, however, said they would oppose such a ban. Majorities of GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, and of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and California, all identify as conservatives.
Trump has also garnered support among those primary voters who are the most acutely unhappy with the way things are going in the US. In each of the five states where this question was asked, the former president won 80% or more of voters who describe themselves as angry, while winning by a smaller margin or trailing among those who pronounced themselves merely dissatisfied.
The exit polls were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. The margin of error for each poll is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample.