A recent CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire indicates that former President Donald Trump is leading the race for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. This follows Trump’s significant 30-point victory in Iowa’s caucuses last week.
Trump currently enjoys 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, with his nearest rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, trailing at 39%. Both candidates have seen an increase in support since the previous CNN/UNH poll in early January, where Trump held 39% and Haley 32%. The field of major contenders has since narrowed from six to three.
Haley’s Gains Not Enough to Catch Trump
Despite Haley’s substantial gains since late last summer, she has been unable to close the gap with Trump, which has once again widened to double digits. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who led the race in UNH’s polling in early 2023, has recently pulled back his efforts in the state and now stands at just 6% in the poll.
For Trump’s opponents, New Hampshire has long been viewed as the best opportunity in the early primary calendar to derail his bid for a third consecutive GOP presidential nomination. However, this latest survey suggests that Trump’s popularity within the GOP base and the loyalty of his supporters outweigh the appeal of his challengers.
Haley Wins Over Independent and Moderate Voters
Haley has won over independent and moderate voters. She holds 58% support among those registered as undeclared (New Hampshire’s term for independent voters) and 71% support among those who consider themselves ideologically moderate. She also leads Trump among voters with college degrees. However, each of these groups represents a minority of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.
Trump’s Support Base Remains Strong
Trump has consolidated his support among larger groups. He has the backing of 67% of registered Republicans, 71% of conservatives, and 55% of those without a college degree. Among Trump’s supporters, 88% have definitively decided to support him, compared to 74% of Haley supporters.
Expectations for Trump’s Victory
Most of New Hampshire’s likely Republican primary voters expect Trump to win on Tuesday. More voters would be satisfied if he became the party’s presidential nominee than would feel the same about Haley or DeSantis. Trump continues to be viewed more favorably within the primary electorate, with 56% having a positive view of him.
Trump’s Presidential Legacy
The state’s Republican primary electorate has a generally positive view of Trump’s first term in office. 70% of likely Republican primary voters believe that he did more to help the country than hurt it. The survey also asked whether Trump would attempt – and succeed at – six things he’s talked about during the campaign. Majorities believe that if he wins, Trump would likely succeed in accomplishing four out of those six.
Democratic Primary in New Hampshire
About two-thirds of likely primary voters on the Democratic side plan to write in Biden. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips holds 10% support in the poll, and author Marianne Williamson has 9% support. Most in the Democratic primary electorate would be at least satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee.
The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online January 16-19 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Results among the full sample of 2,348 New Hampshire adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points.