Trump's Legal Battle: Immunity or Prosecution?
Susan Walsh/AP

Former President Donald Trump’s legal team argued in federal court on Tuesday that he might not be prosecutable due to “absolute immunity” from prosecution. This argument is part of Trump’s strategy to delay four different criminal prosecutions he currently faces.

The first criminal prosecution against Trump by the federal government for 2020 election interference has been temporarily suspended while the immunity questions are being addressed in the appeals process.

Presidential Immunity: A Matter of Debate

During the court hearing, Judge Florence Pan, a nominee of President Joe Biden, presented hypothetical scenarios to Trump’s lawyer, John Sauer. These included whether a president could face prosecution for selling pardons or state secrets. Sauer responded that a president could not be prosecuted unless he was impeached and convicted first.

However, the judges, including Pan, expressed skepticism about the idea of such broad immunity for Trump. Pan pointed out that Sauer was allowing exceptions to immunity in cases where impeachment and conviction have occurred.

Impeachment and Prosecution: A Circular Argument

The argument that impeachment and conviction are prerequisites for criminal prosecution is complicated by Trump’s recent impeachment history. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell voted to acquit Trump in a Senate impeachment trial following the January 6, 2021, insurrection, arguing that Trump should face criminal prosecution.

Trump and his legal team, however, believe that he should not face prosecution, creating a circular argument. His supporters initially argued against his impeachment, and now they argue against his prosecution. The argument appears to be more about convenience than ideology.

Trump’s Political Standing Amid Legal Challenges

Despite his legal troubles, Trump’s political standing remains strong. He is still the favorite to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. However, a recent CNN poll suggests that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has narrowed Trump’s lead in New Hampshire to less than 10 percentage points.

Interestingly, Haley’s rise seems to be driven by independent voters who can participate in New Hampshire’s primary. Her support among these voters has increased by 18 points since November.

While Trump’s legal battles continue, he spent Tuesday in Washington, watching oral arguments in his absolute immunity appeal instead of campaigning in key states like Iowa or New Hampshire.