Former President Donald Trump, a political Houdini, has once again managed to secure the Republican nomination for president, despite facing four separate criminal indictments. This might lead one to believe that Trump has upended conventional wisdom, turning his legal predicaments into political advantages. However, this theory seems to hold less water when we move beyond the Republican primary and into the general election.
While Trump’s legal troubles may not be causing him any significant harm among the wider electorate, there is little evidence to suggest they are helping him either. A look at Trump’s polling against President Joe Biden reveals a different story. Despite the media’s focus shifting from the election to Trump’s New York hush money trial, Biden appears to be the one gaining ground.
Several months ago, during the peak of the Republican primary, Biden trailed Trump by an average of 2 points. Today, the race is essentially a dead heat, with some polls showing Biden slightly ahead within the margin of error, others showing Trump with a slight lead, and some showing a perfect tie.
Interestingly, the first criminal indictment against Trump in late March 2023 did not significantly alter the polling landscape. The polls then mirrored the current situation, with some showing Trump slightly ahead, others showing Biden with a slight lead, and some showing a perfect tie.
However, interpreting these poll results requires a nuanced understanding. For instance, in the New York hush money case, most Americans do not believe Trump committed an illegal act. Yet, this does not imply that Americans condone Trump’s actions. In fact, two-thirds of the public believe he did something wrong, with 33% believing he acted illegally and another 33% believing he acted unethically.
Moreover, a higher percentage of the public (42%) believe that Trump has been behaving inappropriately during his hush money trial, compared to those who believe he has been acting appropriately (25%). Trump has been accused of violating his gag orders and giving impromptu speeches outside the courtroom.
Trump’s legal troubles are not limited to the New York case, and public opinion seems to be harsher regarding the other three indictments. If any case were to give Trump a polling boost, it should be the New York case. However, the absence of such a boost suggests that Trump’s narrative of being the victim of a political witch hunt is not resonating with a majority of Americans.
While Trump has been successful in raising significant funds off these indictments and court appearances, he is also incurring hefty legal fees. Trump’s committees have reportedly spent over $75 million on legal costs, dwarfing Biden’s legal expenses. It remains unclear whether the funds raised from Trump’s base during his legal troubles are offsetting his legal expenses.
Perhaps the silver lining for Trump is that he is tied nationally with Biden and may be in a stronger position in the swing states that will ultimately decide the next president. However, considering he is up against an incumbent perceived by many as too old and with an approval rating hovering around 40%, this may not be much of a bragging point.