Former President Donald Trump’s political influence continues to expand, fueled by his commanding presence in national primary polls and the increasing likelihood of his nomination following a decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses. Despite only winning one 2024 Republican nominating contest so far, Trump’s political clout is on the rise.
Trump has revitalized a previously tepid White House bid by using his multiple criminal indictments to construct a narrative of political victimization. His sway is once again setting the agenda in Washington, with GOP lawmakers aligning with his stance on issues such as government funding, Ukraine, and immigration, and shaping legislative positions to bolster his campaign.
On the campaign trail, Trump’s remaining primary opponents, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, are cautiously intensifying their attacks on him. However, they are holding back their most potent criticisms over the events of January 6, 2021, and his threat to democracy to avoid alienating his supporters.
Trump’s increasing influence is also evident in the rush of GOP lawmakers endorsing him before the primary race is effectively over. Notable endorsements this week came from Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, both of whom were once vocal critics of Trump.
Trump’s political shadow is also looming large over the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. European leaders are expressing concern that their fears of a second Trump term may be becoming a reality. Business leaders are beginning to grapple with the possibility that in a little over a year, a president who disrupted the global order could be back in the Oval Office.
Trump’s pursuit of a strongman presidency has some Democrats worried. Vice President Kamala Harris confessed this week she was “scared as heck” that Trump could win in November. Ironically, the return of the oppressive unease that characterized his White House years for some of his detractors is what President Joe Biden’s campaign is counting on to secure his reelection.
However, given that Trump’s power will rise with every primary vote cast in his favor and the fact he’s running a more professional campaign than he did in 2016 and 2020, Biden perhaps should be careful what he wishes for.
Trump’s enduring weight with Republicans on Capitol Hill has always been unusual for a defeated one-term president and reflected his unbroken bond with GOP base voters. But in the US House of Representatives, especially, Republicans are increasingly mobilizing to push Trump’s political agenda and boost his chance of an election win.
Trump’s behind-the-scenes influence is also threatening the Biden’s administration’s effort to secure tens of billions of dollars in funding for Ukraine. The ex-president has vowed to end the conflict within 24 hours if he wins a second term — on terms that can only favor Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he admires and who launched an unprovoked invasion of his neighbor nearly two years ago.
Trump’s pressure on Republican lawmakers may also be having an even broader impact. First, the delay in funding for its lifeline is forcing Ukraine to push obsolete equipment into service on the front-lines and to ration ammunition. It also sets up a strategic advantage for Putin, giving him every incentive to continue the war at least until early 2025 when there could be a new American president skeptical of Ukraine aid.
After months of denial, there’s a growing sense across the Atlantic that though Europeans would prefer Biden, they might get Trump. “It may also be the wake-up call that Europe needs,” BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, a former head of the Swiss National Bank, told CNN. “We have to find a way to become more sovereign, in a sense, and less dependent, whether it’s on China or indeed on the United States.”