As former President Donald Trump’s potential Republican presidential nomination becomes increasingly likely, conservative groups and donors opposed to his candidacy are intensifying their efforts to secure a Senate victory in November. The prospect of Trump leading the ticket has sparked concerns that retaining the House and flipping the Senate could become more challenging, despite a Senate electoral map that heavily favors the GOP.
“If Trump is the nominee, the risk of a Democratic sweep, similar to the last three elections, significantly increases. This makes the Senate and the House even more crucial,” said Bill Riggs, spokesperson for Americans for Prosperity Action. This group, associated with billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, has invested millions in promoting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the ideal GOP candidate to defeat Trump in the primary.
Despite Haley’s recent setback in New Hampshire, AFP Action leaders maintain their support for her and plan to discuss their political strategies at a Southern California gathering this weekend. However, they acknowledge that their most significant investment in 2024 will be in Senate races, particularly in flipping Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Eric Levine, a New York-based donor backing Haley, emphasized the importance of the Senate, stating, “The Senate is absolutely critical to saving the republic.” Levine expressed skepticism about Republicans retaining the House following a court ruling last month that gave New York Democrats control over the redrawing of New York’s 26-seat congressional map.
Trump, on the other hand, has threatened to blacklist donors who continue to support Haley. However, this threat has only emboldened some, like Art Pope, a Republican from North Carolina and a longtime Koch donor, who stated, “I and most Americans do not respond well to a bully.”
Despite Trump’s early dominance, critics point to potential issues for the party in the general election if he becomes the GOP’s standard-bearer. CNN’s exit polls show that Haley won a significant portion of the New Hampshire GOP electorate that identified as moderate or liberal, a group the eventual nominee will need to win over.
Democrats also face significant risks this year, with President Joe Biden’s average disapproval rating at 60%, according to CNN’s most recent Poll of Polls. However, Republicans have a considerable advantage in this year’s Senate races, defending only 11 seats compared to 23 held by Democrats.
Trump has privately expressed to his advisers and allies that he plans to stay out of many of the upcoming congressional fights. However, he has chosen to endorse candidates he believes could help Republicans secure the Senate majority, assist him on the campaign trail, or prove useful in the Senate if he were to reclaim the White House.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, GOP Senate leaders have made it clear that they will take a more hands-on approach in GOP primaries than in the past. The stakes are high, and the GOP’s strategy in the upcoming elections will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the future of the party and the country.
Contributions to this report were made by CNN’s Daniel Strauss.