Despite national polls indicating a decline in President Joe Biden’s popularity, the real game-changer could be the Electoral College. With less than 11 months until the 2024 Election Day, former President Donald Trump is potentially on the brink of a political comeback. To reclaim the presidency, Trump needs to win over three states that Biden secured in the 2020 election. Recent CNN battleground state polls suggest that Trump is close to achieving this goal if the election were to be held today.
Trump’s Potential Path to Victory
While Biden, like Hillary Clinton, received millions more votes nationwide than Trump, his victory in 2020 was due to narrow margins in key states that Clinton lost in 2016. If Trump, assuming he secures the Republican nomination, can flip Georgia and Michigan and their combined 31 Electoral College votes, he would need to win just one more battleground state that Biden won in 2020. These include Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
Trump’s Legal Challenges
However, Trump’s path to victory is not without obstacles. Over the next year, he faces a series of federal and state charges, including election subversion, mishandling classified material, and hush-money payments related to an alleged affair. Despite these legal challenges, Trump’s political standing remains strong.
Trump’s Rising Popularity in Iowa
Trump’s primary rivals have yet to unite behind a single alternative candidate. A recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll suggests Trump’s support is growing in Iowa, the first state on the GOP primary calendar. He currently has the support of 51% of caucusgoers, with none of his five rivals reaching 20% in the poll.
Georgia Trial and Potential Impact
In Georgia, Trump could face trial as early as August for alleged 2020 election interference. Despite this, Trump currently leads Biden among registered voters in a hypothetical matchup, according to a CNN poll. However, a conviction could significantly alter the political landscape.
Michigan: A Key Battleground State
In Michigan, a crucial part of the “blue wall” that Biden rebuilt in 2020, Trump currently leads Biden by 10% in CNN’s poll. This suggests that Biden has significant work ahead to secure the state’s 15 electoral votes.
Biden’s Challenge to Maintain Diverse Coalition
Georgia, a state that Biden won in 2020 with the support of 88% of Black voters, is part of the diversifying Sun Belt that Democrats view as their future. However, recent polls suggest that Biden needs to work harder to maintain this diverse coalition.
Biden’s Campaign Strategy
Biden’s campaign is focusing on highlighting the choice between their “winning, popular agenda” and the “unpopular extremism” of the Republicans. They are also quick to point out that former President Barack Obama overcame voter dissatisfaction in 2012 and that Democrats narrowly lost the House of Representatives and retained control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm election.
Trump’s Support from Non-Voters
Interestingly, Trump’s lead in Georgia and Michigan is significantly boosted by support from voters who did not cast a ballot in 2020. These voters are currently favoring Trump over Biden in both states.
Biden’s Efforts in Battleground States
Biden has started to ramp up his visits to battleground states. On Monday, he visited a Philadelphia firehouse to announce more than $22 million in federal grant money. This is a small event with a targeted audience, but it signifies the beginning of a campaign that could be decided by a small number of voters in specific states.