Former President Donald Trump is set to return to Michigan on Saturday, a significant 2024 battleground that has seen considerable changes since his last visit five months ago. During his previous visit, Trump focused on the striking auto industry workforce, while his GOP nomination rivals were engaged in the second primary debate in California. The Michigan Republican Party was then under the turbulent leadership of a 2020 election denier.
Since then, the strike has concluded, and the United Auto Workers, the leading union for Michigan autoworkers, has endorsed President Joe Biden. All but one of the Republicans on the California debate stage, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have withdrawn. The Michigan GOP also underwent a leadership change this week amidst a dramatic power struggle.
Trump’s return to Michigan comes in the wake of two New York court rulings that have highlighted the legal challenges he faces. A New York state judge ruled that a trial to determine whether Trump falsified business documents to hide hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels will commence on March 25. Another judge ordered Trump and his companies to pay nearly $355 million for fraudulently inflating his financial statements for a decade.
Trump, on his Truth Social platform, attacked the judge who determined the financial liability, calling the ruling “a Complete and Total SHAM.” Meanwhile, a Georgia election subversion case against Trump and 14 of his allies has been shaken by dramatic testimony this week related to the romantic relationship of two top prosecutors.
Trump’s rally is set to take place in Waterford Township, a Republican-leaning community in the outer Detroit suburbs where he twice won about 53% of the vote. However, Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance in Waterford en route to winning the state by nearly three points. A recent Fox News survey of registered Michigan voters found no clear leader in a two-way contest between Trump (47%) and Biden (45%).
Trump’s Michigan visit, which follows an appearance at Sneaker Con in Philadelphia, comes 10 days before the state’s Republican primary. The Wolverine State is the final February contest before the GOP nominating fight expands to more than two dozen states in March. Trump is not currently expected to return to the state before the primary, according to a source familiar with his plans.
State Party Turmoil
Ahead of his visit, Trump and his allies sought to quell turmoil within the Michigan Republican Party, which has been grappling with its readiness for the 2024 election. The state party ousted its chair, Kristina Karamo, last month amidst internal strife and lackluster fundraising. Karamo, an unsuccessful 2022 candidate for secretary of state who spread baseless claims about fraud in the 2020 election, had served as party chair for less than a year. She claimed the vote to oust her was illegitimate and attempted to retain control.
On Wednesday, a panel within the Republican National Committee ratified Pete Hoekstra, a former congressman and US ambassador to the Netherlands under Trump, as the Michigan GOP’s new chairman. Trump had endorsed Hoekstra in a January 26 social media post. The turmoil has threatened organizational efforts just as Michigan is expected to play a leading role in the 2024 election.
A Play for the Union Vote
Trump’s efforts to win over union households in Michigan have received mixed reception so far. During his September visit to the state, Trump courted blue-collar workers by promising to reverse Biden-era policies that encouraged the auto industry’s move toward electric vehicles. He also made a play for Big Labor’s support, telling his crowd, “Do me a favor, just get your union guys, your leaders, to endorse me. And I’ll take care of the rest.”
Last month, the United Auto Workers endorsed Biden, who became the first president to join a picket line when he appeared with striking workers in Michigan the day before Trump’s visit. Trump, who has encouraged union workers not to pay their dues, responded by calling UAW President Shawn Fain “a weapon of mass destruction” for autoworkers.
Trump’s campaign believes it can drive a wedge between Biden and organized labor. It has made appealing to union members a key part of its strategy to win over working-class voters, especially in battleground Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – all three of which broke for Biden in the 2020 election after backing Trump four years earlier.
Trump’s share of the vote of union households fell from 48 percent in 2016 to 37 percent in 2020, according to CNN exit polls. The recent Fox News survey from Michigan found Biden leading Trump 53% to 41% among union households. Regaining that support could prove key to turning Michigan red again in 2024.