According to the entrance poll for the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, a majority of GOP caucusgoers in Iowa remain skeptical of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. They also express continued support for former President Donald Trump, who is projected by CNN to win the caucuses, even in the face of potential criminal conviction.
The poll results underscore Trump’s enduring appeal among key demographics that form the core of the GOP electorate. Approximately half of the caucusgoers identify as “very conservative,” and nearly the same number align themselves with the “Make America Great Again” movement, a slogan that gained popularity during Trump’s 2016 campaign. Trump garnered significant support from these groups, as well as from White evangelicals and individuals aged 65 and older.
The poll also highlights the educational divide within the GOP electorate. While Trump leads among caucusgoers without college degrees, college graduates are more evenly split between Trump, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Entrance polls offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of caucusgoers. However, they are estimates and not precise measurements of the electorate. The preliminary entrance poll numbers have not yet been weighted to match the final caucus results, but they provide an early snapshot of the voters participating in the first contest of the 2024 campaign.
The entrance poll results indicate a shift in the Republican electoral landscape since the 2016 Iowa caucuses, when White evangelicals and very conservative voters favored Texas Senator Ted Cruz over Trump. The poll also reveals the Iowa electorate’s response to Trump’s previous election loss and the criminal charges he faces. About two-thirds of the caucusgoers do not believe Biden’s victory over Trump was legitimate, despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. Over 60% would still consider Trump fit for the presidency even if he were convicted of a crime.
The entrance poll suggests that Trump’s support in Iowa has been consistent, while his rivals have seen more recent gains. Approximately 80% of Trump’s supporters decided to back him before this month, while a majority of Haley’s supporters and about half of DeSantis’ supporters made their decision in January.
When asked about the most important personal qualities in a candidate, about 40% of caucusgoers prioritized shared values, and about 30% wanted a candidate who would fight for people like them. Fewer were looking for a candidate with the right temperament or who could defeat Biden. The responses highlight the distinct appeals that Trump, DeSantis, and Haley offer to their respective supporters.
About 38% of all GOP caucusgoers identified the economy as their top concern, with about one-third citing immigration, and smaller proportions citing abortion and foreign policy. The entrance poll also found that about 60% of GOP caucusgoers would support a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide.
The entrance poll for Iowa’s Republican presidential caucus was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It includes 1,628 interviews with Republican caucus participants across 45 different caucus locations. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points, and it is larger for subgroups.
This story has been updated with additional information.