Former President Donald Trump’s most significant policy achievement, establishing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, could ironically undermine his 2024 campaign. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion two years ago has sparked a series of repercussions that now threaten Trump’s bid for a non-consecutive second term.
Trump has yet to articulate a clear policy on abortion as conservative states zealously attempt to dismantle these rights. His indecisiveness suggests he is aware that restrictive abortion policies could potentially erode his already delicate appeal to suburban and female voters. However, he cannot entirely disavow his significant victory in overturning Roe v. Wade.
Florida’s Six-Week Abortion Ban
Trump’s predicament has been thrust back into the limelight following a ruling by Florida’s Supreme Court that a six-week abortion ban, one of the nation’s most restrictive, will be enforced next month. Trump initially criticized the six-week limit as a “terrible mistake” when he saw an opportunity to undermine then-primary rival Gov. Ron DeSantis, who signed the law. However, Trump has since declined to comment on the matter, promising instead to issue a “statement” next week.
Can Biden Pin Trump Down?
The Florida Supreme Court issued a separate ruling on Monday that could boost Democrats’ efforts to hold Trump accountable on abortion. By approving a proposed state constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion for this November’s ballot, the court ensured that abortion will be a central issue in this fall’s election in Trump’s home state.
The presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign attempted to straddle the fence on Tuesday, stating that Trump “supports preserving life but has made clear that he supports states’ rights.” However, his vacillation on abortion suggests the risk it poses to his campaign.
Trump’s Position on Abortion
Last month, Trump indicated he was leaning towards supporting a federal ban on the procedure at 15 weeks. He seems to be trying to appease hardline conservatives in his party while also hoping to avoid alienating more moderate and independent voters who will be critical to deciding the election.
However, if Trump formally endorses a 15-week ban, President Joe Biden – who is vowing to enshrine abortion rights into law – would argue that Trump seeks national prohibitions on the procedure. There’s every chance Trump might back away from even this level of specificity.
Democrats Find an Opening
Democrats are confronting their own sense of irony. While Trump’s great success on the Supreme Court has created a big general election headache for him, liberals are now viewing one of the greatest policy failures of their movement – the loss of federal abortion rights – as a political opportunity that could send Biden back to the Oval Office.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade has unleashed policy mayhem across the country. Some Republican-led legislatures have passed tough abortion bans, while more moderate states have moved to safeguard reproductive rights. State-level ballot initiatives have sought to let the voters decide. Even in red states like Kansas and Ohio, voters have sided with the abortion-rights side of those ballot questions.
Democrats’ Hope for Florida
The prospect of abortion rights on the ballot this fall led to some optimistic talk among Democrats Tuesday that the elusive prize of Florida – once a perennial swing state, but one that Trump won in the last two elections – could be back in play in November.
Claims that Democrats can win Florida, which has trended toward Republicans, should be taken with a large pinch of salt at this stage. Trump carried the state by 1 point in 2016 and grew his margin to three points four years later. And DeSantis won a thumping reelection victory there in 2022.
However, even if the early Democratic excitement doesn’t translate to the Sunshine State becoming more competitive this fall, it could force the ex-president to spend some of his limited campaign resources there, instead of using them to attack Biden in closely contested swing states.