Recent public polls have revealed an unexpected trend: former President Donald Trump is gaining significant traction among Black and Hispanic voters. This development has left Democrats on edge, but Republicans may also have reasons to be apprehensive.
Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in national polls and in most key swing states. However, these same polls show Biden maintaining or even surpassing his 2020 share of the White vote. Trump’s lead seems to be largely based on his improved performance among voters of color, outpacing any Republican presidential candidate in decades.
Trump’s Dual Strategy: Energizing the Base and Attracting New Voters
Trump’s current political strategy appears to be a two-pronged approach: energizing his base of White social conservatives with controversial ideas, such as the largest deportation drive against undocumented migrants in American history, while simultaneously attracting historic numbers of non-White voters on other issues, primarily the economy.
If Trump can maintain this dual strategy through November, he will be a formidable opponent. However, Biden’s position could improve if Democrats can unsettle minority communities about Trump’s most extreme proposals and rhetoric.
Trump’s Unprecedented Support Among Black and Hispanic Voters
Public polls consistently show Trump drawing more support from Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican nominee since at least 1960. Recent national polls found Trump winning between 20% to 28% of Black voters and 45% to 48% of Hispanic voters, a significant increase from his 2020 performance.
However, some Democratic pollsters question the size of the minority polling samples that produce these results and insist they do not find nearly this much erosion for Biden in their own polls. Others in the party acknowledge the trend of diminishing non-White support for Biden is real, even if they do not believe it is as pronounced as these public polls suggest.
Trump’s Controversial Agenda on Race-Related Issues
As Trump promises the largest deportation drive of undocumented migrants in American history, including the creation of detention camps and the use of the National Guard for mass roundups, activists working in the community say that very few Hispanic voters are aware of these proposals. As more voters become aware of Trump’s language and proposals, his support among these communities may wane.
Biden’s Stable White Vote
While much attention has been drawn to Biden’s slippage among non-White voters, there has been less focus on his stable support among White voters. Most polls show Biden matching or even exceeding his 2020 support level among Whites.
Even a small additional decline among non-college White voters could doom Biden. However, many Democrats believe Trump has less opportunity for further gains among non-college Whites than Biden has to expand his margins among college-educated Whites.
Conclusion
Trump’s fate in the 2024 election may hinge on whether he can maintain his current level of support among Black and Hispanic voters. This surprising development, coupled with Biden’s stable White vote, has created a unique and unpredictable political landscape as we approach the next presidential election.