In an unprecedented turn of events, former President Donald Trump secured a resounding victory in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. Preliminary results place Trump at approximately 55% of the vote, outpacing Nikki Haley’s 43%. This win not only positions Trump as the likely GOP nominee but also leaves Haley in a precarious position moving forward.
Trump’s Unprecedented Success
Trump’s New Hampshire victory propels him to a level of GOP primary success rarely seen. His vote share is particularly noteworthy; he is only the second nonincumbent Republican to secure a majority of the GOP primary vote in New Hampshire in the modern era. The only other was Ronald Reagan in 1980, with Trump’s 55% surpassing Reagan’s 50.2%.
Trump’s popularity among New Hampshire Republicans is further underscored by his unique achievement of winning the New Hampshire primary twice as a nonincumbent Republican, a feat only previously accomplished by John McCain. This victory follows Trump’s dominant performance in the Iowa caucuses, where he became the first nonincumbent Republican to earn a majority of the vote in the modern era.
Trump’s Broad Appeal
Trump’s ability to secure victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with distinct political landscapes, underscores the strength of his candidacy among Republicans. His appeal spans different factions of the party, as evidenced by his success in two diverse contests. While Iowa is a low turnout caucus engaging primarily with core party activists, New Hampshire is a primary with relatively high turnout and a more moderate, less religious electorate.
Despite New Hampshire’s demographic differences from Trump’s typical base of conservatives, religious Republicans, and Republicans of more modest financial means, he still managed to secure the largest vote share for a nonincumbent in New Hampshire GOP primary history.
Haley’s Uncertain Future
This development spells trouble for Haley, the former South Carolina governor. Despite her insistence on staying in the race, her strongest support base is found in New Hampshire, a state with a demographic makeup not commonly found in other primary and caucus states. The upcoming South Carolina contest, which features both Haley and Trump, does not look promising for Haley, even though it is her home state. National polling places Trump ahead of Haley by more than 50 points.
At this stage, Trump appears to be leading in all states, according to polls. He is even ahead in Vermont, a state that should favor Haley due to its less conservative GOP electorate. It is increasingly plausible that Trump may achieve an unprecedented feat: becoming the first nonincumbent Republican to go undefeated in all 50 states during the primary season.