As the Republican primary draws near, President Joe Biden’s campaign advisers are eager to get the ball rolling. Despite the ongoing preparations for a potential rematch between Biden and his predecessor, the campaign is wrestling with a persistent reality: a significant majority of undecided voters are not yet convinced that Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee.
Internal research from the Biden campaign reveals that this is the case for nearly three-quarters of the undecided voters they are targeting, senior Biden campaign officials revealed to CNN. They attribute this largely to the fact that many voters are not closely following the election, including the intricacies of the GOP nomination process.
“You can’t conceive of how tuned out these folks are,” a senior campaign official commented. Biden campaign officials see their most pressing challenge as helping voters recognize Trump as a strong frontrunner, especially with the first GOP caucus in Iowa just days away. Part of this strategy involves painting a vivid picture of what a second term under Trump would entail.
At some point, Biden campaign officials expect a realization to dawn on many of these voters: “Oh, it’s an election between that guy and that guy.” However, predicting when this realization will occur is currently impossible.
According to an AP-NORC poll from the end of last year, only 20% of the public has been paying close attention to the 2024 presidential campaign, while 47% have paid little or no attention. For now, Biden’s team is focusing on laying the groundwork for their anticipated battle against the former president.
Biden began the campaign year with a strong rebuke of Trump, with his advisers planning to intensify their attacks in the coming months. “Donald Trump’s campaign is about him, not America, not you. He’s willing to sacrifice our democracy to put himself in power,” Biden stated ahead of the third anniversary of the January 6, 2021, insurrection.
The campaign’s focus on Trump was evident during two high-profile events in Iowa. The former president appeared in a Fox News town hall, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley participated in CNN’s Republican presidential primary debate. The Biden campaign, however, chose to respond only to Trump’s comments, ignoring the Haley-DeSantis debate.
“The president looks forward to spending the next 10 months reminding the American people how dangerous Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda are for Americans’ pocketbooks, their freedoms, and their democracy,” said Biden communications director Michael Tyler.
The Biden team was quick to seize on Trump’s claim of overturning Roe v. Wade, viewing such comments as ammunition for their general election fight. They believe abortion rights could be a significant motivating factor at the ballot box.
The Biden campaign also found an opportunity to spar with Trump over the economy, amplifying the former president’s prediction of an economic crash under Biden’s watch. Biden himself responded on social media, stating, “[Trump]’s acknowledging that my economy is doing pretty darn well, because he doesn’t want that to continue.”
Despite economic bright spots and months of “Bidenomics” messaging, voters hold a poor view of the US economy. Biden advisers and allies openly acknowledge that a Biden-Trump match-up is likely to be close. Until Trump clearly emerges as the next GOP nominee, they plan to continue reminding voters of Trump’s first term and warn of the potential dangers of another four years under Trump.
“Once you get to that head-to-head, the dynamics change. The world is different,” a senior Biden campaign official said.