In an unprecedented turn of events, the Iowa caucuses are set to take place amidst a severe polar weather blast. Despite the harsh conditions, former President Donald Trump is urging his supporters to participate, even if they are “sick as a dog”. He is also encouraging them to retaliate against those he has labeled as “cheaters” and “liars”.
Trump, who left office in disgrace in January 2021, is hoping for a significant victory to pave his way towards a third consecutive GOP nomination and a potential return to the White House. Meanwhile, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is seeking a momentum boost ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary, her best chance for a surprise win over Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is also fighting to keep his campaign alive.
Despite months of polls, multimillion-dollar ad campaigns, and the collision of an election with Trump’s legal troubles, the voices of Iowans are the only ones that matter. However, the severe weather may influence who can participate. Blizzards and bone-chilling winds have forced candidates to cancel multiple events in the final Iowa stretch.
Trump, boasting a powerful network he lacked in 2016, has avoided one-on-one voter contact in the frigid final days. Instead, he has substituted outbursts outside New York and Washington courts for intimate meets-and-greets in places like Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Sioux City. His rivals, meanwhile, are struggling to gain traction.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has mocked rivals who postponed events due to weather, warning that their timidity showed they would fold before Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, his bravado led him to steer his SUV into an icy ditch.
Trump’s campaign has been characterized by a mix of extreme demagoguery and comedy, including the auctioning of an American flag, hero worship of a wrestler, a cascade of falsehoods about the last election, biting new attacks on Haley, and praise of what Trump called “the best bacon I ever had”.
The final pre-caucus Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll showed Trump with the backing of 48% of likely Republican caucus-goers. Haley polled at 20%, ahead of DeSantis at 16%, although within the margin of error, and Ramaswamy with 8%. A Trump victory would reverberate around the world, marking an astonishing political comeback for an ex-president who refused to accept his 2020 electoral defeat.
Despite his legal dramas and personal feuds, Trump has assembled a far more professional political machine than before. This fact should worry Democrats if he becomes the nominee. Meanwhile, Haley is trying to exploit Trump’s liabilities without angering the voters who still like him. DeSantis is presenting himself as a more effective implementer of Trumpism than the former president himself.
The Iowa campaign is ending just as it began — with the former president on top. The curtain-raiser voting will provide the first real data of the 2024 election. But there’s little evidence that Republicans want someone else. While Haley and DeSantis are running spirited campaigns, and Ramaswamy became a conservative star despite appearing to infuriate his rivals, Trump still speaks for millions of Republican voters.