The upcoming general election appears to be less about President Joe Biden’s policies and more a referendum on former President Donald Trump, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The poll reveals that voters’ motivation is largely driven by Trump, regardless of their political affiliation.
Voter Motivation
Among Biden supporters, 68% stated their vote would be against Trump, while only 32% said it would be a vote in favor of Biden. Conversely, 60% of registered Trump supporters said their vote would be for Trump, with 40% voting against Biden. This dynamic persists even as Trump faces four separate criminal trials.
Close Race Predicted
Current polling suggests a tight race between Biden and Trump. Trump currently holds a slight lead with 49% of registered voters’ support, compared to Biden’s 45%. This is consistent with CNN’s previous poll conducted in the fall.
Public Opinion Shifts
Public opinion has shifted over the past year, with more Americans now holding an unfavorable view of Biden than Trump. Trump’s unfavorable rating has decreased from 63% in January 2023 to 55%, while Biden’s unfavorable rating has increased from 54% to 59% over the same period.
Concerns About Candidates
Among Republicans, the primary concern about Trump is his demeanor, with 15% expressing worries about his tactlessness and abrasiveness. For Democrats, the main concern about Biden is his age, with 46% expressing worry.
Trump’s GOP Dominance
Trump’s dominance within the Republican Party is evident, with 70% of Republican or Republican-leaning registered voters supporting him over Nikki Haley’s 19%. Despite trailing significantly in the polls, Haley remains in the race, arguing that she is better suited to lead the country for two terms.
Key States and Voter Blocks
With such a close election predicted, turnout among key groups in key states could be decisive. Both candidates are courting union support, with Trump meeting with Teamsters union leaders and members, and Biden meeting with United Auto Workers union members. However, Biden faces a challenge in convincing younger, progressive voters to turn out in large numbers.
The Middle East and Michigan
Biden’s policy on the Middle East could impact his support in key states like Michigan, which has a strong Arab American population. Michigan Democrat Rep. Hillary Scholten suggests that a negotiated peace agreement in the Middle East could help Biden win the state.
Conclusion
The upcoming election could hinge on mini-battles for specific voter blocks. The main question is whether Biden can generate enough opposition to Trump to secure victory, rather than relying on Democrats’ enthusiasm for his reelection.